06/22/2011 Market Outlook (Key Day Tomorrow)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

明天很关键，如果暴跌下去，那么多半会去测试三月的lows，理由我昨天的Market Outlook里交待了，exhaustion bar + Fib 38.2% + MA(20)。

我目前的看法是至少还有one more push up，理由是惯性定律，很少有前几天这样的strong push up，突然就fail的，一般今天盘中的high会revisit一下的，此外见今天的Trading Signals，明天是bullish Thursday。Again，我最近开始涉及较多的pattern，以前我是避免谈的，因为可能会被认为不objective，但是现在我intra-day comment看多的同学应该知道，这种看pattern是可以很有效的。当然，pattern不总是100%工作，市场永远是对的，所以明天早盘暴跌话，我会是熊。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
• 06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all Sentimentrader’s  Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target 2166. EEM & Weekly DOWN *Chances of breakdown are higher.  XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69. DAX & Weekly DOWN TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN *Very small Bear Flag in the forming. XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming. XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34. XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

svca

svca

hillcrest

thank you Cobra!

ctcld

Jinan90

谢更新。 希望明天开高好逃命。今天贪心加仓了在高位。

wayout

那就等明天看看吧

skipjack

henggma

Thanks.

CoolMax

try_again

Thanks..

BRCBRC

jynmax

顶起老蛇！

abracadabra

福多多

jdad4

thanks{:8_446:}

Newbull

dbshjb

Your analysis is very, very impressive as always. Thanks.

belmonthill

美眉妹

{:8_441:}{:8_441:}