05/18/2011 Market Outlook (Still is Bear Flag)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:31 PM

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

QQQ看着还是很清楚是Bear Flag，所以我认为今天的反弹仅仅是反弹而已，应该还没有跌完。

另一种可能性是由于SPY daily看起来还少了一个push up，既所谓的3 push up，因此我不能排除这里反弹直接去新高的可能性，所以操作上，明天大涨特涨的话，我就叛变做牛牛了。

下面的图正好举例说明3 push up后的2 legged down。现在当然还不好说是否2 leg down结束了，但是要小心Bull Flag的可能性，UUP调整结束后回复升势的话，将对股市不利。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 22, average gain 0.6%.
May expiration day, Dow down 12 of last 20, average loss 0.2%.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
~~05/05 Market Outlook: No –1,000 TICK on almost 1% down day, so 05/05 low will be taken soon.~~
05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	DOWN
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Forevergreen · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:35 PM

本帖最后由 Forevergreen 于 2011-5-18 20:36 编辑

thanks

n748 · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:36 PM

Forevergreen · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:36 PM

n748 · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:36 PM

n748 · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:36 PM

n748 · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:37 PM

should reply first before I read. would be a first sofa ever. Missed again

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:41 PM

PacificLegend · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:41 PM

小财虫 · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:43 PM

ahdou · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:46 PM

jpm · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:50 PM

fara · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:54 PM

surya · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:54 PM

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:55 PM

老大"叛变做牛牛"，我们会好喜欢。

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:57 PM

Ding!

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:58 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-5-18 07:59 PM

thanks

cc2265 · 发表于 2011-5-18 08:02 PM

源济 · 发表于 2011-5-18 08:04 PM

		自动登录	找回密码
密码			注册

[技术分析] 05/18/2011 Market Outlook (Still is Bear Flag)

评分

点评