05/17/2011 Market Outlook (Bear Flag)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:01 PM

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

比较大的可能性是还没有跌完，主要理由是惯性，这几天这么强的下跌，很少有第一次反弹就成功的。下面的图，不排除是Descending Triangle breakdown then kiss breakdown point goodbye的常见形状。此外QQQ的Bear Flag看着比较明显，也是没有跌完的样子。

这里还有个小小的back test，我不认为很solid，但是说有一点点点bearish biased应该不算过分啦。从测试结果可以看到后面两天都不怎么好玩，但是一周后又涨回来了，因此结论是可能短期还有的跌，然后会有sharp reversal。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 22, average gain 0.6%.
May expiration day, Dow down 12 of last 20, average loss 0.2%.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
~~05/05 Market Outlook: No –1,000 TICK on almost 1% down day, so 05/05 low will be taken soon.~~
05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
EEM & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top breakdown? Be careful.
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	DOWN
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN
XLF & Weekly	DOWN	Descending Triangle breakdown? Be careful.
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN	*Double Top breakdown? Be careful.

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:02 PM

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:02 PM

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:03 PM

Elephant · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:03 PM

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:03 PM

Elephant · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:04 PM

Elephant 发表于 2011-5-17 20:03

coexist · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:06 PM

西安 · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:08 PM

oda · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:08 PM

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:08 PM

jennifer · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:15 PM

ahdou · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:17 PM

First Page

小财虫 · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:18 PM

IMeMyself · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:18 PM

First page

aimei · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:24 PM

萧秋水 · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:29 PM

navybean · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:30 PM

Thanks

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:30 PM

pigking · 发表于 2011-5-17 07:42 PM

看得出来，库大是缺钱了

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[技术分析] 05/17/2011 Market Outlook (Bear Flag)

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