05/09/2011 Market Outlook (ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index Too High)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE REBOUND FOR A FEW DAYS BUT 90% CHANCES THE WEEK WILL CLOSE IN RED

今天没啥好说的，维持05/06 Market Outlook的forecast，短期有反弹，然后掉下来。操作上，明天如果不能大涨特涨的话，可能做熊熊还是比较安全些。

今天有两个比较特别的地方，都不怎么牛牛友好，看一下吧。

ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < ISEE Equities Only Index AND ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index >= 100, sell short at close hold until the very first down day, you’ll have 74% chances since 2006 (when ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index was introduced). 注意到Winners平均是1.8 bar，因此可能明天还有的涨，后天才啪唧。

 

OEX Open Interest Ratio又涨，不好玩。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 05/06 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, Monday after Mother’s Day, Dow up 12 of last 15.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
• 05/04 Market Outlook: At least a short-term top could have been in.
• 05/05 Market Outlook: No –1,000 TICK on almost 1% down day, so 05/05 low will be taken soon.
• 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful! SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP ChiOsc is way too high. *2 Hollow Red Bars, so pullback? FXE & Weekly UP 3.1.1 UUP Daily: Testing downtrend line, ChiOsc too high. GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN Too much damage done, so more down ahead. XLE & Weekly DOWN XLF & Weekly DOWN Confirmed Bear Flag breakdown, be careful. IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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