05/06/2011 Market Outlook (More rebound but the next week may close in red)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE REBOUND FOR A FEW DAYS BUT 90% CHANCES THE NEXT WEEK WILL CLOSE IN RED

为什么说可能还有more rebound？因为VIX连涨了6天(thanks for a reader reminding me)。下面是back test ，VIX up 5 consecutive days, buy at SPX at close (that’s 05/05, not 05/06), sell 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 and 20 days later since year 2003，可以看到两到三天内还是很bullish的。不过，下两周就没有多少edge了，所以我认为本报告后续关于IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing说明下两周不怎么好玩还是有一定的可信度的的。

 

下面的图for fun only，我在05/06 Intraday Comment里提到过，小心周一大涨特涨哈。当然，我个人认为这次的黑棒棒和上次的黑棒棒差别很大，所以周一再来个16点高开的可能性要小一点点点点点点。

 

为什么下周可能最终收红？因为IWM整了个Weekly Bearish Engulfing。Back test显示，后面三周都不怎么好玩。

 

另一个证据来自Schaeffer，看起来也是后两周不怎么好玩。

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，这个图注意一下，我还不肯定CPCE:RSP的bearish crossover是否是whipsaw，所以想再等等。这个bearish crossover如果最终确认的话，将意味着Non-Stop Model正式进入sell mode。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

我最早在04/01 Market Recap里提到了可能的wave 5 target area，本周SPX恰巧就在该区域内整了一个颇有些反转意味(60%)的Dark Cloud Cover，因此下面大家要注意了，后面几周如果下跌很猛，特别是跌破03/16 low的话，就可能证明这种bearish wave count数对了，换句话说就是说不能排除primary wave 3 down的可能。当然啦，目前这只是个注意，连warning都算不上，知道有这么回事就好。

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, Monday after Mother’s Day, Dow up 12 of last 15.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
• 05/04 Market Outlook: At least a short-term top could have been in.
• 05/05 Market Outlook: No –1,000 TICK on almost 1% down day, so 05/05 low will be taken soon.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP Testing MA(50). Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful! SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP *ChiOsc is way too high. FXE & Weekly UP *3.1.1 UUP Daily: Testing downtrend line. GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly *DOWN   USO & Weekly *DOWN Too much damage done, so more down ahead. XLE & Weekly *DOWN Double Top? XLF & Weekly *DOWN Confirmed Bear Flag breakdown, be careful. IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

当时惘然

当时惘然

thank you.

terranmn

源济

like2swing

thanks

当时惘然

回复 Cobra 的帖子

is there any update about chart of "OEX Open Interest Ratio"?
thank you very much.

navybean

Thanks

HTER

2001ht09

lilitulip

thank you

aimei

Thanks Laoda

maldini

Cobra

当时惘然 发表于 2011-5-7 21:44
回复 Cobra 的帖子

is there any update about chart of "OEX Open Interest Ratio"?

n748

If it goes up big, everything will be changed. Everyone will be bullish again.
Nowadys

当时惘然

回复 Cobra 的帖子

thank you

n748

people tends to be fearlessly bullish. There is no upper limit to the infinity.

sooners

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oda

oda

回复 Cobra 的帖子

老大, 你等的dately RSI背离虽然没出现, 但weekly已经出现了吧, 而且下礼拜如收RED的话, 应该可以算followthrough了吧? 而且周线收红的几率很大.