02/09/2011 大盘回顾 （Just a Pullback? New High Tomorrow?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 27 unfilled gaps, the max is 27. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven On 02/03, stopped out of long position entered on 02/01 flat. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold partial long position overnight as the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to do so.

My Thoughts I see no reason to short but am not convinced yet this is the primary 3 of 3 to much much higher.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD JUST BE A PULLBACK, MAY SEE NEW HIGH TOMORROW

 

今天还是没有很多要说，所以no After Bell Quick Summary。

 

两点说明：

1. 今天的pullback可能仅仅是个pullback，不是start of something new。
2. 明天可能就会有new high。（不排除new high后又掉下来though）

为什么说今天的pullback仅仅是pullback，借用一下Elliott Wave Theory，因为price overlap，所以看起来不是impulse wave down，换句话说，就是这可能不是真正的下跌的开始。

 

 

为什么说明天可能有new high，因为INDU今天new high了，而INDU Leads Market。

 

 

所以，我猜，明天反弹，甚至有new high，然后有掉下来的可能(not sure)，至少也是个盘整的格局，不会涨到哪里去，理由是VIX有反弹的可能，see chart below。

 

 

最后一个图，info only，sample太少，不说明什么问题。INDU up 8 days in a row, short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1999, the winning rate is 100% but only 4 cases.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L	TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/08 L
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/01 L
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

blackrock

沙发？

blackrock

Yes!!

xiaoxiaozhang

Thanks!

whzdf

xixi

thanks!

xixi

first page.

mikeqc

1st page

yuliang

Thanks.

mikeqc

we are making the history!





really?

noenoe

oldfox

learner2009

qianshui

thanks!

vsedge

are you going to change the view of market with the market reaction to CISCO ER?

mikeqc

VIX 跌无可跌？ 不，it can go to 10.

nanosensor

Thanks.

dxzhu

First page. CSCO will drop tomorrow.

Bencat

report so early today!

hunting