02/08/2011 大盘回顾 （Bearish Rising Wedge?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 27 unfilled gaps, the max is 27. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven On 02/03, stopped out of long position entered on 02/01 flat. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.

My Thoughts I see no reason to short but am not convinced yet this is the primary 3 of 3 to much much higher.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

 

今天还是没啥好说的，因此After Bell Quick Summary就免了吧，I did nothing today。

 

SPY 60 min chart看着像是个Bearish Rising Wedge，我估计大家第一个反应就是多半不work。Well, let’s see，毕竟这个Rising Wedge看着比较perfect。

 

 

关于明天，I’m bearish biased，至少大涨的机会不大。两个理由：

 

• TICK closed above 1000, so most likely a small green or red day the next day.

 

 

• INDU连涨7天，从统计看，特别是gain loss ratio，高达10，因此熊熊还是有些edge的。Short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1999, you have 78% chances to win something.

 

 

今天早上，我post了the most recent Institutional Buying and Selling Trending chart from StockTiming。有读者问为什么我认为the chart is bearish，下面的图shows a longer history (by combining an old chart together)，应该很清楚，往往a divergence formed prior to a correction，而我们这次的divergence是最大的一次，所以目前，我还是倾向于暂时维持02/04 Market Recap里提到的，2.5%+ pullback within 2 weeks or never的结论。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L	TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN	STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/01 L
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

siulau

Sofa?

oda

colderdown

volumn, volumn, volumn.

lehldk

老大帅呆了，就是动口不动手

xuetu

oldfox

acoust

First page!

ahdou

trender

First page

萧秋水

风信子

jamesmith

老大帅呆了，就是动口不动手
lehldk 发表于 2011-2-8 17:32

那是，蛇大乃君子也~~

jamesmith

zeebra

SPY 过135 以前不会大跌。过135 以后，也不会大跌。
pullback, just pullback.

armorr

Thanks!

nanosensor

Thanks

Cobra

老大帅呆了，就是动口不动手
lehldk 发表于 2011-2-8 17:32

   

Jinan90

谢谢

Cobra

那是，蛇大乃君子也~~
jamesmith 发表于 2011-2-8 17:43