有同学关心USDJPY收益差，更新下...

X!nG

我维持USDJPY3个月86，6个月90的目标价...



另外，技术方面，历史仍然可以作为参考：

dreampen

Thanks!

易自通

Poo

我维持USDJPY3个月86，6个月90的目标价...
X!nG 发表于 2011-2-5 22:23

09下半年到10年末的趋势这两趋势还是相同的。只是09年初和去年11月来出现的divergence.
星星能不能说说是什么造成了这两者之间的关联和关联脱离？谢谢

BLT

请问一下星星：

您总是说通胀，，，，那现在是不是该买房子的时候？ 谢谢！

ranchgirl

busywind

thanks!

xmanhua

星大好，不知您对美元是看涨多长时间？美国经济增长是货币现象，赤字问题三五年内应该无解，美元彻底走强是不是得2016啊？
债市收益率上升，黄金调整，是不是要到美国通胀大升后才是黄金再次大涨之时？
美元是流动性的反映，您看涨美元，是不是您预期流动性收缩？但由于美国量宽政策，而且数据向好，短期好像没有收缩的可能。望兄能解惑。新春吉祥！

X!nG

09下半年到10年末的趋势这两趋势还是相同的。只是09年初和去年11月来出现的divergence.
星星能不能说 ...
Poo 发表于 2011-2-5 23:39

你问的非常好！

出现背离的两段时间分别是QE I（自Dec 16,08）和QE II （自Nov 04,10）的过程中。

X!nG

请问一下星星：

您总是说通胀，，，，那现在是不是该买房子的时候？ 谢谢！
BLT 发表于 2011-2-5 23:49

不好意思，

我实在没有资格给你投资建议，

希望你能理解...

X!nG

星大好，不知您对美元是看涨多长时间？美国经济增长是货币现象，赤字问题三五年内应该无解，美元彻底走强是 ...
xmanhua 发表于 2011-2-6 00:19

我期待Fed今年6月-8月首次加息。

xmanhua

回复 11# X!nG


    星大，是因为长期利率上涨，fed必须加息吗？美元和A股最近都负相关，美元走强，A股岂不又跌。

X!nG

回复  X!nG


    星大，是因为长期利率上涨，fed必须加息吗？美元和A股最近都负相关，美元走强，A股岂 ...
xmanhua 发表于 2011-2-6 00:55

你肯定没怎么参与近期的灌水，

我已经说了有2，3个星期了，

我期待美元兑欧元走弱，兑日元及瑞郎走强...

而瑞郎兑（除日元外）的G6货币全线走弱。

xmanhua

以后一定多多灌水

Poo

你问的非常好！

出现背离的两段时间分别是QE I（自Dec 16,08）和QE II （自Nov 04,10）的过程中。
X!nG 发表于 2011-2-6 00:29

也就是ＦＥＤ印钱时是负相关，印完了又正相关了。

ＮＮＤ　ＦＥＤ

X!nG

也就是ＦＥＤ印钱时是负相关，印完了又正相关了。

ＮＮＤ　ＦＥＤ
Poo 发表于 2011-2-6 01:31

不是那意思,你误解了.

汇率与债券收益差没有负相关,只是FED“人为的”扭曲了市场的轨迹.

BLT

那么能不能说说您对美国房市的看法？ 我发帖不多，但是您的每个帖子我是必看的，，，，谢谢

不好意思，

我实在没有资格给你投资建议，

希望你能理解...
X!nG 发表于 2011-2-6 00:33

德莎

littletiger

那么能不能说说您对美国房市的看法？ 我发帖不多，但是您的每个帖子我是必看的，，，，谢谢
BLT 发表于 2011-2-6 04:55

I may say 1 say about housing: the best hope is it can bottom in 2012; even after it bottoms, price won't appreciate much. overall, the available house vs. Us household is over-supplied.


besides, TX, FL, seattle may recover better because of inflow of people into that 2 states/city.

littletiger

In 2010, the correlation between USDJPY and the yield spread between 1-year government bonds in both countries was significantly positive, 0.85. The correlation between USDJPY and the yield spread between 10-year government bonds in both countries was 0.77 in 2010. And the correlation between USDJPY and the Nikkei 225 Index was 0.66 in 2010.

Since December 2010, this pattern has slowly changed. Based on the 30-day rolling correlation between USDJPY and various yield spreads and the Nikkei 225 Index, the relationship between USDJPY and the differences of asset prices became ambivalent since mid-December. Another correlation, between USDJPY and USDCNY, began to grow stronger.




Since inflation became a much more severe problem in China near the end of last year, expectations of Chinese interest rate hiking and currency appreciation have run high. Although the recently widely publicized offshore yuan bonds market in Hong Kong is attracting a lot of eyeballs, there are still few instruments available for investors to directly bet on the appreciation of yuan. One indirect way to profit from the appreciation is still to bet on the appreciation of currencies of other East Asian exporters, just like in 2006 and 2007.

In the next few weeks the China December CPI will be released. Given the record new loan growth in 2010 and strong commodity prices in December, CPI is likely to rise despite the anti-inflationary policies taken by the policymakers in Beijing. Moreover, the US-China leadership summit in one week also implies that China will be more comfortable with yuan appreciation in the next few days. If the recent positive correlation between USDJPY and USDCNY holds, odds are that USDJPY is going to drop further in this environment

回复 1# X!nG