01/12/2011 大盘回顾 （Too Far Above MA200）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max is 25. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually? 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down). 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January. 01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence means negative ahead. 01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign. 01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP.  I hold no position overnight.

My Thoughts A correction is just a matter of time, but until price confirms, I prefer long to short, with caution though.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS TOMORROW MORNING AT LEAST

 

还是没啥好说的，After Bell Quick Summary里已经提了，Narrow Range bar consolidation好像最近此后都有pullback，因此可能明天早盘会软点儿。On the intermediate-term，我还是相信比较大的pullback是迟早的事情，只是现在很难timing，所以操作上，虽然并不建议short，但是也不觉得现在重仓long是个好主意。

 

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，今天officially，SPX is too far away from its MA(200)了，这个，如果地球上还有一个indicator可用的话，那就是too far away from a Moving Average了，所以again，我不认为现在重仓long是个好主意。

 

 

4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals, the famous SPX weekly EMA(13) and EMA(34) system has the same problem too, the spread between 2 MA is simply too large.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

See 01/07 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

See 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/10 L
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
TLT		Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly	UP
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD		Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S	1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	01/06 S
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

thomast

SF thanks.

thomast

Yeah

thomast

Oh, yeah.
Thank you, Cobra

thomast

Oh, my, still SF

thomast

OMG

thomast

dreampen

Thanks !

源济

jamesmith

占楼，多谢火星蛇老大

navybean

Thanks

Jeff

thanks!

SmartyJones

Thanks!

dreampen

这股市是吃了大量伟哥了。 这么长久坚持不泄。

萧秋水

    老蛇辛苦了，多谢！

blackrock

mickeyrain

谢谢

dreampen

老大, 好像以前 weekly RSI  过了70,  后面也没什么好事。 不过现在， 在伟哥的作用下， 这也没什么了不起了。

hfang01

atrader

thanks