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| BULLISH |
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. |
| BEARISH |
1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max is 24.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
*0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? | |
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
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Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. |
| Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is UP, I hold partial long position overnight, not idea if it’s safe though. | |
| MY STRATEGY: STOCK |
BOND |
EURO |
OIL |
GOLD |
| Long but I will be very careful here. |
Long |
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Long |
Long | |
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE
昨天的high是否是the high，或者今天的low是不是a low，no clue，只能看明天了。一般the previous high是会被测试至少一次的，地球人只有在两次failure后才会掉头，用indicator的语言来讲，就是RSI一般是要negative divergence以后，才可能a little bigger pullback，所以从price pattern来看，是应该还有一攻的至少。
熊熊要watch的地方是今天的low，只有破了这个地方，才有可能是1-2-3 trend change。加上可能的时间上的阻力，see chart below (the original idea is from Elliott Wave International)，1 = 5 and 2 = 4 in terms of trading days，所以如果明天真的breakdown below today’s low的话，可能熊熊有点机会。顺便说，1 = 5 in terms of price的话，SPX target should be 1291，因为今天是25 trading day，所以牛牛还有两天的时间(26 to 27 trading day)实现这个目标，理想的情况下，当然。
其他没啥说的了，昨天提到的both CPC and CPCE are low means a top of some kind，今天CPC and CPCE还是很low，注意吧，图我就不贴了，see 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch for yourself.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, JANUARY’S 1ST 5 DAYS IS AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-1-4 08:27 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2011-1-4 08:30 PM
