美国房市二次探底还是triple bottom?

ypm968

Case-Shiller 20-city Index chart






US National - A composite index for the entire USA



Shiller Says Optimism Is `Fading' in U.S. Housing Market
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2VIru2H98I

maopao

刚才吃饭时电视里报道说房价又跌1.3%全国范围，但是好像加州还有另外一个啥州忘记了，是涨的。

yaobooyao

Might take a weighting on 3 short/long term factors:

1. interest rate / mortgate rate - short term movement and expectation.
如果房贷利率短期内上涨快过预期，同时经济起色不大的话，购买需求下降，房价可能会继续下降。 2011年上半年可能就是这样，短期内通胀预期推高债券收益率，进而推高Mortgage Rate，从而对房价产生打压和约束，在foreclosure 不再继续恶化的前提下，房价不会大跌，但是不太可能上涨，阴跌可能性大。

2.  Jobless rate - the ultimate indicator of ecomony status
这是个短期加长期的基本面因素。如果美国2011年继续维持9.X%的失业率炒过12个月，房市低迷是肯定的事情。就算炒房，也不着急，房价就算上涨，沿着很低的斜率上升要很长的路走，这个飞机起飞的跑道短不了。

3.  Long term inflation expectation
个人觉得长期来看通胀是看涨的，通胀因素是唯一一个对房价看涨的因素。前提是买房者接受比较高的Mortgage Rate （只有两种可能：1. 认为未来的Mortgage Rate 会更高；2. 房子的增值速度快过Mortgage Rate ，这两种可能性出现的世道现在人人都知道了，这是诊断泡沫严重性程度的两个指标）。

个人觉得美国的房价可能是熊旗加双底的走法。

我在加拿大，我所在的银行最近开始提出2011 年控制成本、精简运营的口号，提出到2012 年前要做好持久战的准备，这与2010年初大干快上花钱的论调180度转弯，想必，他们看到了点儿别人看不到的事。 我发现，银行对外讲的论调是反指，它对内实际的行动在很多情况下对未来6～12 个月的宏观经济预期是很准确的。

小财虫

看一看SRS

colderdown

San Diego leads national market. So, here is one of our deals for a house we got for 920K:

Closing deal: 07/2008, 1090K, 08/2009, 1068K, 05/2010, 1000K. The guy asked for 950K 7 weeks ago, we said go pounding sand. 920 take it or leave it. We got it.

ypm968

San Diego leads national market. So, here is one of our deals for a house we got for 920K:

Closin ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-12-28 21:08

    Since when San Diego leads national market, are you kidding me?
San Diego home price topped in July.

ypm968

Might take a weighting on 3 short/long term factors:

1. interest rate / mortgate rate - short ter ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-12-28 20:56

    It is all about jobs, jobs, and jobs. Home price can't be stabilized without job growth.

Poo

It is all about jobs, jobs, and jobs. Home price can't be stabilized without job growth.
ypm968 发表于 2010-12-29 01:05

housing market is national event but also very localized. take a look of Washington DC, because the government related spending, DC job market is much stronger than national average. As a result, DC house market has been holding quite well. 冷唇兄 is right. If you have a strong local job market, then you will have a strong local housing market.

I do not know much about San Diego though. I thought it sucks.

ypm968

housing market is national event but also very localized. take a look of Washington DC, because  ...
Poo 发表于 2010-12-28 22:55

Yes. Out of 20 Metropolitan Areas, Washington DC is the only one that seems stabilized.  
    Washington Metropolitan Area        Washington–Arlington–Alexandria, DC–VA–MD–WV

skywalker

The sales are down 50% compared to the year 2003 ~ 2006.   It wont stay like this for too long.

Yes. Out of 20 Metropolitan Areas, Washington DC is the only one that seems stabilized.  
    ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-12-29 02:16

atrader

房市是老百姓推的，不像股市，市界各地的钱可以很快地滚进滚出。现在次级房贷该
坏的坏了，ALT-A 和PRIME的坏帐与UNEMPLOYMENT成正比，实际UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
~20%，这样差不多~10%的ALT-A 和PRIME MORTGAGE 最终烂掉。现在是政府堵着FORECLOSURE的屁眼，
但是，屁最终要出来的。不过，如2011不是底，那就看不到底了。

ninemao

Yes. Out of 20 Metropolitan Areas, Washington DC is the only one that seems stabilized.  
    ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-12-29 02:16

    还是德州好，涨也不会大涨，跌也不会大跌，适合自住，养家糊口的好地方。

colderdown

回复 6# ypm968

Since yr 1998? Leading period is about 8 month to 18 month. The specific area we choose to compare with national price is Del Mar, Camel Valley, RP, Temecula. Also, there is a big difference between a person sitting in front a computer looking charts with a person really goes out and buying stuff. So, before you said:" Are u kidding me?" 先看看自己的盘子有多大，然后再试试能不能组个PE。您老的帖子就此不敢再跟了，您太牛X了，我们这儿不行，20%还没达标呢。不过好象拿出track record，大家还都很满意。麦道夫不也就是保底12%吗。房价和工作，现有鸡啊还是先有蛋？

Poo

回复  ypm968

Since yr 1998? Leading period is about 8 month to 18 month. The specific area we ch ... 您老的帖子就此不敢再跟了
colderdown 发表于 2010-12-29 11:54

别这样。 我给你两一人再发把刀，下次找个机会一定要血拼到底！

atrader

Might take a weighting on 3 short/long term factors:

1. interest rate / mortgate rate - short ter ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-12-28 23:56

    在中国，你用现金买房，与在美国，用贷款买房不一样
    通涨=>利息升高=>同样的MORTAGGE PAYMENT 借到的钱少了=>房价跌。

yaobooyao

San Diego leads national market. So, here is one of our deals for a house we got for 920K:

Closin ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-12-29 00:08

Seems the housing bubble in San Diego is not that huge:

The price only shrinked about 15.6% , comparing now the deal at 920K vs 1090K in 2007 peak.

My friend in Reno got a big cut at half of his purchase price back to 2006.

atrader

Seems the housing bubble in San Diego is not that huge:

The price only shrinked about 15.6% , ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-12-29 16:58

    San Diego is a nice place. rich people all over the world are there buy house paying cash. for working class, a lot of high tech, bio. tech...buying house there will never be a wrong idea.

atrader

别这样。 我给你两一人再发把刀，下次找个机会一定要血拼到底！
Poo 发表于 2010-12-29 14:02

   

colderdown

回复 16# yaobooyao

I should give you the details. This area's housing price was peaked in late 2005, flat in 2006. This property's market price during that period was 1.3M. Then it was REO deal in 2008,, regular sale 2009, short sale 2010. Now it is regular sale and reason we bought is one investor in mainland wants it.

MLat42

回复 19# colderdown

不承认不行。队长水平要高。表现在思路敏捷，客观，不预设条件，逻辑严谨。