12/28/2010 大盘回顾 （CPCE Top Signal Confirmed）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/27 12/21 : 12/22 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/27

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 23 unfilled gaps, the max is 23. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped? *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Stopped out on 12/21 with loss. Reference only, not meant to be followed. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is up, but I hold no position overnight.

 

SHORT-TERM: WAIT TOMORROW TO SEE IN WHICH DIRECTION THE MARKET BREAKS

 

今天这个break out并不充分，还是可以看成retest the previous high，因此熊熊还有希望，看明天吧。

 

 

Overall, price volume pattern非常bearish，所以我还是认为pullback只是早晚的事情，一旦pullback开始，最近几周的涨幅可能几天内就whip out了。

 

 

Follow up一下，昨天报告提到的CPCE top signal，今天confirm了，老读者都知道，这个信号相当可靠。Let’s see这次准不准吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST WEEK AND THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE GENERALLY BEARISH

 

See 12/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/21 L
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		*Clear breakdown below consolidation range, be careful.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		*Another leg down?
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		The 2nd test of the previous low, so there’s a chance EURO is bottomed around here.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

mikeqc

蛇皮沙发

mikeqc

蛇皮板凳

wolfdoctor

板凳！！！！

mikeqc

蛇皮地下室

trader88

Thanks

wolfdoctor

看看这回终极武器CPCE是不是work。对咱们老胡同来说，CPCE算是降龙十八掌级别的了。

chuanhua

tonyshen

mikeqc

Overall, price volume pattern非常bearishCobra 发表于 2010-12-28 19:33

假日的原因不能算数吧？

oldfox

Cobra

假日的原因不能算数吧？
mikeqc 发表于 2010-12-28 19:38

    如果不是假日，连长4天，volume连跌3天，我就会说了。现在都那么多天了，这个绝对bearish。This market is very very sick.

dingdingdang

dreampen

Thanks!

Thirty-cents

Thanks,

Ed02

ge (good evening)!

李隆基

源济

HTER

西安