年底了，大家轻松一下啊（女生勿入）

colderdown · 发表于 2010-12-21 02:19 AM

本帖最后由 colderdown 于 2010-12-21 02:22 编辑

有一个老笑话，说有一傻蛋娶个老婆，一日，老婆不适，请来郎中。郎中见女子有几分姿色，起了淫心。那女人见郎中俊俏，也就从啦。倒是傻蛋在旁看着自言自语：“要不是这郎中往那上涂了些东西，我就疑心到底”。想想八月来，空着TLT，后来又买了点SPY空对冲，到最后要不是有TLT的空，我就疑心到底。现在是空SPY多A股，怎么觉得又是这样，要没有多A股，我就疑心到底。靠，原来我就一傻蛋，如果钱就是我老婆的话。anyway，你们可千万别把我的乱放炮当真啊。牛牛们，快来用吐沫来淹死我吧，快手不看回调那一天，俺就能出水了，否则，哼，

我就疑心到底。

dayuangone8 · 发表于 2010-12-21 02:27 AM

hahaha

greenback · 发表于 2010-12-21 03:00 AM

xz214 · 发表于 2010-12-21 07:44 AM

源济 · 发表于 2010-12-21 08:33 AM

ko88888 · 发表于 2010-12-21 08:50 AM

shoujie · 发表于 2010-12-21 08:55 AM

本帖最后由 shoujie 于 2010-12-21 09:01 编辑

K，俺比傻蛋还傻。要不是手里有31元的YOKU，俺就疑心到底。NND。

楼主给个白话文吧，要不俺猜一下：大本=郎中，女子＝市场／钱，那东西=QE，傻蛋＝俺们

draguide · 发表于 2010-12-21 01:38 PM

没人吓你，我来吓吓你。
冷兄有没想过a股崩掉，死皮猛涨的情况发生？
至少目前em performance比死皮逊色。
往好了说，是em不景气，死皮这个被印钱吹起来的胖子随时要跟着em萎下去。
但是前两天hk股市暴跌让我有个想法，如果热钱从中国撤出呢？
我知道冷大是认为中国的通胀型牛市可以持续十几甚至几十年的。
但是我认为在中国这样的高通胀下，人民币是迟早要大幅度贬值的。
唯一的疑问是什么时间。
如果人民币大幅贬值，资本回归美国，那时就是死皮牛市，A股熊市，冷兄两头没着落。

colderdown · 发表于 2010-12-21 01:45 PM

If 人民币大幅度贬值 now, the Chinese bull market will so so so confirmed. You just long that sucker with all you have. ( reference: India market. BTW, we have $2 M land deal at India since 2009, near double so far. Rupes/USD from 38 to 45). In fact, the only thing I am worrying about is 人民币won't 大幅度贬值, or worse, shoot up.

draguide · 发表于 2010-12-21 02:21 PM

If 人民币大幅度贬值 now, the Chinese bull market will so so so confirmed. You just long that sucker ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-12-21 13:45

interesting。我想冷兄的意思是货币贬值会进一步推高通胀？
所以房价，股价都会涨的比货币贬值的速度快？

colderdown · 发表于 2010-12-21 02:54 PM

回复 10# draguide

It is a bot more complicated than that. Studying currency relation with economic size, growth, type and trading difference will help. I am sorry that I can't go deeper here, It really requires a lot of typing.

draguide · 发表于 2010-12-21 03:16 PM

回复 draguide

It is a bot more complicated than that. Studying currency relation with economic ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-12-21 14:54

没关系，我再去做做功课。谢谢。

jilier · 发表于 2010-12-21 04:37 PM

K，俺比傻蛋还傻。要不是手里有31元的YOKU，俺就疑心到底。NND。

楼主给个白话文吧，要不俺猜一下：大本 ...
shoujie 发表于 2010-12-21 08:55

还是你IQ高啊，我连看了两遍LZ的帖子，楞是没明白。而且特佩服LZ总能把市场往那上面想，能力不是一般的。

lehldk · 发表于 2010-12-21 04:45 PM

呵呵，没看懂，涂了点啥东东

jilier · 发表于 2010-12-21 04:46 PM

没人吓你，我来吓吓你。
冷兄有没想过a股崩掉，死皮猛涨的情况发生？
至少目前em performance比死皮逊色。 ...
draguide 发表于 2010-12-21 13:38

正是这篇文章里讨论到的，http://hutong9.net/viewthread.ph ... p;page=1#pid1295495
通胀/通胀预期-》货币增值，那要按LZ的观点，货币增值将导致A股暴跌，这点不是很明白。

colderdown · 发表于 2010-12-21 07:40 PM

本帖最后由 colderdown 于 2010-12-21 19:42 编辑

回复 15# jilier

This one is so full of holes, but it very much fit into most Chinese reads' taste (Most of theml beleive in some kind tricks, short cuts etc.) In a few words, the west is still in deleverage phase, so in general, over supply is the problem. Under weak demand, price advantage will over rule others (please don't use Apple as example, do you buy Apple every other week?). Then in the near term, the weak CNY/USD is absolutely good for Chinese economy since it depends a lot on exporting. The question is when will weak CNY is bad for Chinese equity market, well, let's say when China is no longer world factory any more and its economy does not advance to more tech. centered, and its domastic demand doesn't pick up. OK, let's use Inda as example, its' labor cost increased 20% (more income), but its currency against USD lost 20%. Now, you go check its stock index.

ahdou · 发表于 2010-12-24 07:41 PM

K，俺比傻蛋还傻。要不是手里有31元的YOKU，俺就疑心到底。NND。

楼主给个白话文吧，要不俺猜一下：大本 ...
shoujie 发表于 2010-12-21 08:55

真是个‘打炮’帖，给力！

faithflower · 发表于 2010-12-24 11:12 PM

不着四六.

Merry Christmas

shoujie · 发表于 2010-12-25 01:24 PM

本帖最后由 shoujie 于 2010-12-25 13:30 编辑

疑心到底
疑心到底
疑心到底
NND, 俺现在要到郎中那里要点儿"那东西"涂在YOKU上....

sfbayarea · 发表于 2010-12-25 03:30 PM

bullish on European equities, not usa, not china....

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[放炮] 年底了，大家轻松一下啊（女生勿入）