12/14/2010 大盘回顾 （Hindenburg Omen）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold trapped long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/09 – 12/11

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least. 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Ascending Triangle breakout, target $125.61. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max was 23. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 12/10 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close? 12/10 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen to be confirmed.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE TOP COULD BE IN

 

今天虽然又收绿了，不过我估计下面会有pullback，理由除了今天的After Bell Quick Summary里83% winning rate的统计以外，图形上，可能是典型的1-2-3 trend change pattern，所以非常可能short-term top was in了。至于pullback target嘛，一般pattern，至少是the November highs。

 

 

Indicator At Extremes from Sentimentrader, update一下，spread已经是April的水平了，if not above。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: HINDENBURG OMEN COULD HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED, NEED THE 2ND SIGNAL TO CONFIRM THOUGH

 

看到标题“Hindenburg Omen”，我估计很多人第一个反应是，由于说的人太多，所以这东西不工作，事实上昨天还没有确定触发呢，就已经有人这么说了，anyway，我的任务是告诉你有这么回事，that’s it。这个suppose是个凶兆，下面的图是最近几次Hindenburg Omen出现时的位置。我个人并不认为八月份时的Omen是个failure，毕竟这不是个短期信号，so let’s wait and see。

 

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

 

See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.

 

See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	*12/14 S
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) oversold and buy signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc too low.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/02 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

nanosensor

Ding

nanosensor

Ding

nanosensor

Ding

nanosensor

Ding

nanosensor

Ding again

farmer01

回复 6# nanosensor


    thanks

happyface

thanks so much

atrader

thanks

X中国陆军

ppteam

OK, if it's triggered and not many people mention this time, it might work. If it's 'discovered' in every blogs like last time, it won't work.

飞船

谢谢老大！英文不好，看不大懂，是该回调的意思吧？

flash

老蛇什么意思，今天有触发hindenburg omen吗。

michaelzhang

Cobra

老蛇什么意思，今天有触发hindenburg omen吗。
flash 发表于 2010-12-14 20:25

    触发了。

Cobra

OK, if it's triggered and not many people mention this time, it might work. If it's 'discovered' in  ...
ppteam 发表于 2010-12-14 20:24

哈哈，anyway，你出名了，当了一次反面教材，明天跟你同事说，说那个someone，就是你。

Cobra

谢谢老大！英文不好，看不大懂，是该回调的意思吧？
飞船 发表于 2010-12-14 20:24

    哪个看不懂？1-2-3还是Omen？反正都不太好。

源济

mikeqc

1st page

mikeqc

OK, if it's triggered and not many people mention this time, it might work. If it's 'discovered' in  ...
ppteam 发表于 2010-12-14 20:24

真正的老大就是考虑的多。