11/23/2010 大盘回顾 （Intermediate-term Downtrend?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is SELL, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold partial short overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to do so. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Week 11/26 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks. 1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout? Target $122.63. Failed! Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so top is close? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC is too low, so top is close? 11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close? *6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means more pullback ahead? *11/23 Market Recap: SPX down 1.4%+ but ISEE Equities Only Index > 200 means more pullbacks.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model *11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) *Closed long entered on 11/18 with loss.  *Entered short on 11/23. NYMO Sell 11/12 S 11/19 High *Adjust stop loss (should be 11/19 high, yesterday report was wrong). Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE LOWER LOW TOMORROW

 

可能没有跌完，明天多半会有lower low (below today’s low)，然后可能反弹。

 

为什么说没有跌完？

 

因为1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，看着像是Symmetrical Triangle or Pennant，此外跟过去的几次反弹比，这次明显的最弱，因此可能至少还有one more push down。

 

 

因为今天是Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9)，根据下图，count red dashed lines，有73%的机会明天会有lower low。

 

 

因为今天SPX down 1.4%+而ISEE Equities Only Index却大于200，表明散户英勇畏惧的buy dip。下面的图highlighted in red是过去同样的cases，无一例外，第二天都有lower low。另外，注意这个图，7 out 9 times，more pullbacks ahead。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD

 

中期有进入down trend的危险，当然chart pattern hasn’t confirmed yet，所以我只是说有“危险”。理由，table above里已经列了很多，今天算是confirm了之前提到的诸多理由：

1. SPY ST Model正式进入sell mode。A short position has been initiated.
2. Two Major Distribution Days within five trading days，见下图，短期虽然会有反弹，但是chances are very high that an intermediate-term downtrend has started。

 

SEASONALITY: 59% CHANCES, BUY TUESDAY SELL FRIDAY COULD BE A WINNING TRAD IN THANKSGIVING WEEK SINCE 1988

 

See 11/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	11/16 S
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		*Double black bar testing MA(20), doesn’t look good.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	11/16 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		*3 hollow red bar on support, rebound?
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP	%B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/16 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

shoujie

不好意思，沙发又撞到俺了。。

小财虫

2

小财虫

3

小财虫

4

小财虫

5

everest001

dsp

front page. thanks.

can2000

thanks

can2000

ding

happyface

谢老大.

can2000

:)

jamesmith

thanks mars snake old big

everest001

[
Intermediat ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-11-23 20:58 [/quote]

Corba Laoda:

what is general target for 1-2-3 setup. could you explain a little using MA as example? I guess it finished 1 and 2, what will the target of 3?

Thanks very much!

NZX

谢谢老蛇

dreampen

Thanks!

Summerrose

Poo

thanks

NewMember

thanks!

wyemlyy

老大最近的报告很有分量的说

 
TREND
MOMENTUM
COMMENT

Long-term
2 of 2 are BUY
 


Intermediat ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-11-23 20:58