|
|
As expected, we had massive gyrations around the 2:15PM fed annoucement. Market went down 2 minutes before the announcement, and prompted recovered when QEII was confirmed, only to sell off again (to 20 day EMA!!!) before recovering and hitting new high.
The sell-off was initiated by locals offering down. Instead of finding paper sellers to whom the locals can cover their short against, they found relentless waves of paper buy orders. Hence the sell-off fizzled out and locals had to scramble for exit while paper buy orders fuelled the rally back into OR.
If you have access to pit audio, you could probably tell when the fake-out by the locals were going to get reversed by listening for cues of waves after waves of paper buy orders hitting local offers. Alternatively, one way to cut through the crap is to look other asset classes, in particular VIX. Despite the sell-off, VIX was down big and that was a cue that the sell-off to the downside probably wouldn't continue.
However, not all is hunky dory for the bulls either. In terms of seasonality, Fed day +1 and fed day +2 are more likely to be down days than up days when the Fed day itself is positive and we have had a big run-up over the previous 4 weeks. Lots of big bears are also covering and/or initiated long positions. Usually when all the bulls are in, the rally comes to an abrupt end. |
评分
-
4
查看全部评分
-
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-11-3 11:28 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-11-4 08:30 AM
