When Bill Gross Speaks, You'd Better Listen

Whigs

    * The Fed’s announcement of a renewed commitment to Quantitative Easing has been well telegraphed and the market’s reaction is likely to be subdued.
    * We are in a “liquidity trap,” where interest rates or trillions in asset purchases may not stimulate borrowing or lending because consumer demand is just not there.
    * The Fed’s announcement will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment.

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/RunTurkeyRun.aspx

yuliang

thanks for providing this article.

greenback

cartier

大師觀點／葛洛斯：債市多頭可能告終

【經濟日報╱編譯何信彰／綜合外電】 2010.10.28 02:13 am

  
諾貝爾經濟學獎得主史提格里茲（Joseph Stiglitz）說，美國振興經濟應採用更多的財政支出措施，而非聯準會（Fed）的量化寬鬆。全球最大債券基金經理人葛洛斯（Bill Gross）則表示，聯準會如果再度大舉收購資產，意謂債市30年的大多頭可能告終。

史提格里茲26日說，2009年的財政支出確有成效，但要追求短期效果則嫌規模不夠且設計不周；他認為歐巴馬政府還會推出更多的振興方案。至於聯準會的量化寬鬆措施，應該考慮受到影響的不是只有美國。史提格里茲說，這些措施可能產生其他資產泡沫，進而傷害新興國家。

史提格里茲認為，透過量化寬鬆來刺激放貸、振興經濟作法有助提振信心，但也得付出代價。如果沒有足夠的財政激勵來真正振興經濟，會產生「過度承諾」風險。素有「債券天王」稱號的葛洛斯，形容二次量化寬鬆時說：「一張幾兆美元的支票可不是債券持有人的朋友。」

【2010/10/28 經濟日報】

happywacom

that means we are going for stock?

kosh

谢谢！ 看不太懂阿。长短中期， interest bond 都受影响么？糨糊， 糨糊。 请哪位老大用通俗语言讲讲？

canucks

what does it mean to us?

n748

Bill is lucky to be in a position to adapt to the new environment and still able to make some decent money, but frogs like myself are completely helpless, clueless.

While understand that BEN is doing what he can even though it may not (or most likely not) work, it's still my believe that FED seems is the ultimate problem of our crisis. Their interruption have caused all kinds of bubble, one after another, only to use the new one to replace the old one.

Seems like the game is close to be over, even for FED, based on Bill's comment.

bbsid

What is happening? Isn't the fed is still buying the bond? why rate suddenly up huge? Is the bond rate finally up now?

Whigs

What is happening? Isn't the fed is still buying the bond? why rate suddenly up huge? Is the bond ra ...
bbsid 发表于 2010-10-28 00:29

Some big guys (Gross, and China?) are fighting the Fed, and looks like they overwhelmed the Fed in the long term treasury bonds field.
Don't want to speculate too much on it, but it finally shows that the Fed is vulnerable!

integration

tips可以炒成负利率，别的bond炒不到负利率，总该有个limit。

bbsid

Some big guys (Gross, and China?) are fighting the Fed, and looks like they overwhelmed the Fed  ...
Whigs 发表于 2010-10-28 02:22

Thanks..

Today bond rate down, maybe that means the spike is just a spike? the rate will go down again as said"don't fight the fed"?
Rate is really important to me.. while, wish it could stay down for a while, or at least after 2-3 weeks visit former low level

bbsid

tips可以炒成负利率，别的bond炒不到负利率，总该有个limit。
integration 发表于 2010-10-28 02:36

Tips: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
    tips可以炒成负利率?? so if inflation higher, tips could be negative?

integration

前几天的一条新闻不是说五年期的tips被炒高成负利率了吗？如果通胀保值补贴是0或很小，最终就是买了这个品种不仅没回报，还要倒贴钱。当然买家可能预期通胀保值补贴会很高或短期还有向上操作空间。

Tips: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
    tips可以炒成负利率?? so if inflation higher,  ...
bbsid 发表于 2010-10-29 00:13