Japan primer warns of Greece-like debt crisis

oldpigwang

.Japan PM warns of Greece-like debt crisis
Japan's new premier warns of Greece-like debt crisis if action not taken


           Buzz up! 2 Print..Topics:International.
Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan delivers his policy speech at Parliament in Tokyo Friday, June 11, 2010. Kan, speaking in his first address to Parliament after taking office Tuesday, warned that his country could face a financial mess like that of Greece if it did not deal urgently with its swelling national debt. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)
Mari Yamaguchi, Associated Press Writer, On Friday June 11, 2010, 6:44 am EDT
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan could face a financial mess like the one that has crippled Greece if it does not deal urgently with its swelling national debt, the new prime minister warned Friday.

While Japan is on firmer financial footing than Greece because most of its debt is held domestically, Prime Minister Naoto Kan's blunt talk appeared designed to push forward his agenda, which may involve raising taxes.

Speaking in his first address to Parliament after taking office Tuesday, Kan said Japan cannot continue to let government debt swell while state finances are under pressure from an aging and declining population.

"It is difficult to sustain a policy that relies too heavily on issuing debt. As we have seen with the financial confusion in the European community stemming from Greece, our finances could collapse if trust in national bonds is lost and growing national debt is left alone," he said.

Japan, the world's second-largest economy, has the largest public debt among industrialized nations at 218.6 percent of its gross domestic product in 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Kan, who became Japan's sixth prime minister in four years after a short stint as finance minister, promised his government would work closely with the Bank of Japan to avoid an increase in deflation and would focus on developing a "strong and comprehensive" policy.

Kan has said he will also consider raising taxes, an issue he said previous governments had been too timid to face. A social progressive and a fiscal hawk, Kan said he would announce further details of his economic growth plan later this month.

But he said he aims to have the economy grow by more than 2 percent annually by fiscal 2020.

After amassing a vast public debt and overspending to the tune of 13.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, Greece was saved from defaulting on its loans by the first installment of a euro110 billion ($131 billion) rescue package from the International Monetary Fund and the 15 other nations that share the euro currency.

Analysts said Kan's warning comparison with the recent development in Greece is an overstatement, since the Japanese investors who hold the majority of the government's debt are seen as long-term stakeholders who are less likely to bolt for other, more lucrative markets overseas.

"Greece had a huge public debt and huge overseas loans," said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse Japan. "Japan has a trade surplus, and it's a major creditor nation ... I don't think Japan's fiscal conditions is facing a similar crisis."

Instead of focusing too much on fiscal tightening, Kan should simply focus on growth strategy that works for Japan's matured economy as the nation's population continues to age and shrink, he added.

Kan's predecessor abruptly quit last week after he failed to keep a campaign promise to move the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma off the southern island of Okinawa.

Kan is enjoying a jolt of public support, with approval ratings of between 60 and 70 percent boding well for his party heading into next month's elections.

His Democratic Party is considering a July 11 date for the polls, but that has caused a row with their coalition partner and prompted its leader to announce in the early hours Friday his resignation from a Cabinet post. The junior coalition party wants instead to extend the current parliamentary session to vote on a key postal reform bill.

AGA7d

也就嘴上说说，动真格的，很难。

所有的政府，如果经济需要赤字维持，如果国债还继续有人买的话，那它几乎就没别的选择。

padme

我看到有人说，日本国债基本上都是日本国民持有的。日本人也有很强的储蓄和购买国债的习惯。所以日本国债数字虽然很高，到现在为止都还没有什么问题。

那么接下来为什么可能会有问题呢，原因是持有日本国债的日本人，现在年龄都大了，该退休了。这样一来，这些人就从购买国债的生力军，一下子变成需要靠积蓄来生活的人，那就会抛售国债套现了。如果买入和卖出的水平相当，可能还问题不大，但是日本也是一个老龄化很严重的社会，从目前的情况看，老年人卖出的国债数字已经超出了年轻人买入的国债数字。

日本以前净储蓄的趋势改变了，变成了净消费，所以日本国债也就危险了。

AGA7d

知道日本的ESTATE TAX的规矩吗？老年人卖出国债后钱去哪儿了？