为期十年的黄金牛市已近尾声

源济

万维读者网记者唯一编译报道：Reuters刊登的文章说，为期十年之久的黄金牛市现在已经快结束了，但是金属投资专家说2010年里黄金还是有可能再升一些，最高达到1300美元一盎司。

研究金属的GFMS主席 Philip Klapwijk说，由于用来制作首饰的黄金需求下跌了很多，所以金价的上升空间已不多了，在某个时候黄金价格一定会下调。

因此，他认为我们已经进入了黄金牛市的末期。

自2000年来，黄金价格翻了四番之多，当年金价仅是250美元一盎司。从今年来看，黄金上升了5%，金价在一盎司1150美元。

虽然金价已达到很高点，但是专家说这并不意味着黄金价格马上会跌。预期金价在下跌之前还有一些上升空间，将在未来6-12个月里达到顶峰。

Klapwijk 说黄金牛市的最后阶段有时可以持续两到三年之久。他相信今年年底之前金价会到1300美元一盎司的价位。

最终金价会遇到重重阻力，比如政府的刺激经济政策的结束，投资者对于黄金的需求也会随之减少。

这次经济危机导致人们对金首饰需求大降，但是人们对黄金的购买上升了，主要目的是为了投资保值。

黄金的长期需求和供应现在正处于平衡点，但是金价在如此高位维持很久是不大可能的。

传统黄金市场的基础现在并不健康，因为用来做首饰的黄金需求在全球下降了40%。在这次经济衰颓中人们对金首饰需求就下降了 20%。

金首饰消费是黄金市场的最大支持，黄金需求的70%都是来自首饰制作。

专家说，黄金消费迟早会反弹，到那时金价将会有比较大的升跌，波动性会更大。

源济

Gold near final bull stage; gains possible: GFMS


(Reuters) - Gold is near the final phase of its 10-year bull run, but prices could still climb as high as $1,300 an ounce in 2010 driven by higher investment demand, said Philip Klapwijk, chairman of metals consultancy GFMS Ltd.

The rise of gold prices is not sustainable because jewelry demand has dropped to less than half of total demand, and record investment buying at some point will fall off, Klapwijk told Reuters in an interview before the release of Gold Survey 2010.

"There are pointers to the fact that we are entering the final stages of a bull market," Klapwijk said.

Bullion has more than quadrupled since 2000 when it was trading at about $250 an ounce. Year to date, it has gained about 5 percent and spot gold is currently fetching about $1,150 an ounce.

"But that doesn't rule out the potential for some fairly fancy price gains before it reaches a peak in prices. We are actually pretty bullish still in at least the next 6-12 months."

Klapwijk said the last phase of gold's bull cycle could last as long as two to three years.

"By the end of this year, we believe prices will be near the $1,300 mark," he said.

Klapwijk said gold will eventually face strong headwinds, such as the end of governments' emergency economic stimulus packages. "Investment demand at some point has to falter," he added.

The worst economic crisis since the Great Depression has led to both a sharp drop in jewelry buying and soaring gold investment demand for wealth protection.

Klapwijk said that gold supply and demand are not currently in a long-term equilibrium and prices at higher levels are not sustainable.

"This is not an healthy underlying market when the traditional mainstay of the gold market on the demand side, jewelry, is reduced to just 40 percent of demand."

GFMS' gold survey showed that jewelry demand fell 20 percent to 1,759 tonnes due to weak consumption during a recession.

Jewelry demand, excluding scrap gold, was even weaker, down 25 percent at 1,111 tonnes.

Jewelry consumption is usually the biggest underpinning factor, representing about 70 percent of total gold demand.

"At some point, there will be a resumption of normalcy, and gold is going to look very pricey. You could see some massive volatility and significant swings in prices," Klapwijk said.

(Reporting by Frank Tang and Jan Harvey; Reuters Insider interview by Jane Grieve in London; Editing by John Picinich)

xiaoyaoxl

IMF卖了好多黄金，阿三买了好多黄金

怎么能让阿三得利呢

ranchgirl

IMF卖了好多黄金，阿三买了好多黄金

怎么能让阿三得利呢
xiaoyaoxl 发表于 2010-4-18 00:18

Actually, China bought more gold than Indians.

xiaoyaoxl

Actually, China bought more gold than Indians.
ranchgirl 发表于 2010-4-18 00:24

    oh，这个不知道，就知道中国也买了好多啊

    现在全世界利率都是最低水平，等都加起息来...

wyemlyy

啥，偶还打算靠黄金赚点钱呢，今年

draguide

hi-liter

啥，偶还打算靠黄金赚点钱呢，今年
wyemlyy 发表于 2010-4-18 00:52

me too.