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Ah, the smell of Goldman surrender in the evening. Smells like... victory.
Slightly less than two weeks ago we initiated a long EUR/$ trade recommendation on the basis of three factors. First we anticipated a notable improvement of cyclical growth news in the Eurozone, second we highlighted the continued USD negative BBoP flows and finally, we assumed that the Greece risk premium in the Euro would stabilise and decline.
While broadly correct on the cyclical news, where the latest round of European business surveys point to strong momentum, we have clearly underestimated the impact on the EUR from the European sovereign crisis and perhaps also from the broader macro adjustment that it portends. The latest developments suggest the building consensus among Eurozone members is becoming increasingly difficult. These political headwinds currently matter far more for the Euro than the cyclical factors.
We were stopped out of EUR/$ for a potential loss of 2.8% (opened at 1.3740, closed at 1.3350). Given we also carry significant EUR/$ exposure in our short $/PLN recommendation, we decided to also close this idea for a small potential gain of 0.6%. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-3-24 11:23 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-3-24 11:31 PM
