ESPN: For 3D TV, the Time Is Now

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Sports will drive the transition to 3D, just as it did to HDTV years ago, according to Bryan Burns, vice president of strategic business planning and development for ESPN.

Speaking at the DisplaySearch U.S. Flat Panel Display conference, Burns noted that 100 days from now, ESPN 3D will launch with the FIFA World Cup from South Africa. Seven years ago, he said, ESPN announced ESPN HD. And it helped grow HD to the point that most American homes now get HDTV. On January 5, the company announced ESPN 3D, and quoting Yogi Berra, Burns said, "It's déjà vu all over again."

Noting that people will have to wear glasses for the 3D effect, Burns said that explaining the difference between passive and active shutter glasses is going to be a challenge. He mentioned  BYOG ("bring your own glasses"), and how that was a problem because not all the vendors will use the same glasses.

Clearly, there are some challenges; people will need to buy new 3D TVs, and get used to wearing glasses. But Burns made the point that the price differential between 3D sets and today's HDTVs smaller than the cost difference between HDTV and analog TV seven years ago. He cited a CEA study in which 19 percent of respondents said they wouldn't buy 3DTV.  But seven years ago, more than 40 percent said they would never buy HDTV.  

Challenges also include the set-top box. DirectTV and the cable companies say they can upgrade most of their boxes, but Burns said that's not a sure thing. Local TV is not likely to broadcast in 3D anytime soon, but he said DirectTV was going to lead the charge, and this would lead the perception and the push for cable systems to move to 3D.  

According to Burns, 32 percent of 1,000 adults surveyed by Quixel Research said they would be willing to switch providers to get 3D. Quoting another survey, he said 67 percent of people say they would be more likely to buy a 3DTV if 3D content was available.

One question is whether your cable company actually handle the bandwidth, and another is whether consumers will be happy with the quality they can deliver. But Burns said he' convinced that would happen. When ESPN HD launched in March 2003, he said, it was carried on only a very few cable systems, but it grew quickly.  He sounded hopeful that the numbers would be higher this time.

ESPN's challenges include the difficulty of providing 3D content live. Burns talked about how making 3D now requires more than two times the cost and effort, because we need to create normal content as well as HD content. But there may be some ways around this: He mentioned that as a test, the company filmed a Harlem Globetrotters game in 3D and then showed only the left-eye content as HD on ESPN2 last week.

According to Burns, ESPN was originally skeptical about 3D. But then the network did a test game of Ohio State-USC, and that went well. Viewers rated it very highly--they liked it.  But they also had complaints that quick camera changes could be hard on the eyes, graphics tended to "swim" on the screen, and so on. That's why they continue to experiment and learn how to better film and produce in 3D.  He said it's "really easy to make bad 3D," but the company is working on improving that.  

ESPN will launch its 3D coverage on June 11, with a broadcast from the Fifa World Cup in South Africa. This will originally be delivered to the cable systems via fiber, with 720p, 60-fps content.    Satellite delivery and 1080p might happen in the future. ESPN  has committed to 60 3D broadcasts in the first year, and that may grow to more than 100. One limitation is the number of broadcast trucks that can handle 3D. Today, there's only one 3D truck. But in seven years, the industry went from 25 HD trucks to 170.

In response to a question about 3D video content delivered on the Internet, Burns noted that despite all the talk about Internet video, Americans still watch 99 percent of their video on traditional TV. He said ESPN's biggest source of revenue is that it reaches 100 million homes in America at about $4 a month.

Burns had two cautionary notes. He said the business had to work, with everyone in the chaing making money. And he said the possibility of 2D-to-3D conversion could actually slow down and hurt 3D; because if that became commonplace, it might slow down the reason for investing in real 3D production.

Still, in general, Burns was very enthusiastic that all the challenges would be overcome. The most important thing, he said, was pulling all of these things together so it's easy for the consumer. Sports will drive 3D, Burns said, and I completely agree.