Kass对2010年的20大预测

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Kass对2010年的20大预测


每到年终，市场上总会充斥许多前景预测 Seabreeze Partners Management创办人暨总裁Douglas Kass在CNBC节目上，对2010年提出20大预测。

1. 2010年第一季企业获利较前一年飙升100%，GDP则是跳升4.5%。
2. 房地产市场及就业市场未回升：Kass预测，就业市场会微幅回升。实质利率将逐步上扬。
3. 美元飙升
4. 金价崩盘：Kass表示，金价将跌破900美元。
5. 各国央行提早紧缩政策：Kass认为，现在的政策可能是个错误。他认为央行将跟随中国的脚步，中国已经开始抑制资产投资。所以他预测，美国联邦准备理事会(Fed)可能意外提前升息。
6. 以色列攻击伊朗，拖累中东和平
7. 明年上半年股市下跌10%
8. 高盛成为私人企业：Kass表示，巴菲特将使高盛成为私人企业。以波克夏在2008年投资高盛取得的15美元权证行使价格，高盛股价将下跌至125~130美元。
9. 2010下半年GDP成长迟缓
10. 对利率敏感的股票表现优於大盘，金属不如大盘
11. 公债殖利率下滑
12. 巴菲特将离职
13. 扩大起诉内线交易
14. 证管会突击共同基金的开支
15. 证管会限制放空：Kass预测，由於经济出现二次衰退的双重底，股价开始下跌，所以会引发放空禁令。
16. 避险基金再度波动
17. 花旗执行长换人
18. 疲弱的共和党自乱阵脚
19.老虎伍兹东山再起：Kass预测，伍兹将与太太在2010年初合好，并返回球场参加PGA赛。
20. 洋基被卖给前GE主席威尔许的投资团队

ppteam

90%一个都不准

trueself

trueself

UBS Reveals Top Sectors for 2010

With only a handful of days left in 2009, you're likely examining various market insights, trying to position yourself for the year ahead.

As you make your moves, it may help to know that UBS has put out some interesting predictions.

Jeremy Zirin, chief equity strategist at UBS Wealth Management says to stick with procyclical investments in 2010. (That is anything that benefits when the economy is picking up.)

Specifically, he’s bullish on three sectors, energy [XLE  57.20    -0.33  (-0.57%)   ], materials [XLB  33.33    -0.16  (-0.48%)   ] and tech [XLK  23.0402    -0.0098  (-0.04%)   ]. Although he feels the best gains stick with the trade.

“Valuations are still reasonable and I don’t think the market has priced in recovery even if the recovery is tepid,” he says.

And ahead of the broadcast Zirin told our producers that energy, materials and tech should also benefit because ‘more than half of the stimulus money will be spend in 2010’. That massive amount of money going into the economy, combined with relatively low interest rates should bode quite well for these sectors.

Zirin also has some interesting predictions for 2010 on the economic and political fronts. They follow:

2010: Things That Will Happen
-Recovery Will Continue
-Geopolitical Threats Will Emerge
-Taxes Will Rise
Source: UBS Wealth Management Research

2010: Things That May Happen
-Commercial Real Estate May Hit Crisis Levels
-Fed May Remain on Hold
-Additional Stimulus Pkg. May be Passed
Source: UBS Wealth Management Research

2010: Things That Won't Happen
-Inflation Will Not Be A Problem
-Dollar Will Not Collapse
-Municipal Credit Crisis Will Not Develop
Source: UBS Wealth Management Research

ranchgirl

90%一个都不准
ppteam 发表于 2009-12-30 10:45

不准没关系，大家很快忘记掉。
准了就名声大震。

ppteam

5# ranchgirl

我记得住。
AUSSIE预测家（和星象有关）预测GWB在任上被暗杀，错； 预测TOM CRUISE出车祸死亡，错。

atrader

5# ranchgirl

我记得住。
AUSSIE预测家（和星象有关）预测GWB在任上被暗杀，错； 预测TOM CRUISE出车祸死亡，错。
ppteam 发表于 2009-12-30 16:27

90%的人，记性没你好

ranchgirl

5# ranchgirl

我记得住。
AUSSIE预测家（和星象有关）预测GWB在任上被暗杀，错； 预测TOM CRUISE出车祸死亡，错。
ppteam 发表于 2009-12-30 16:27

wow, excellent memory!!!!!!!!!!!!

mocca

不准没关系，大家很快忘记掉。
准了就名声大震。
ranchgirl 发表于 2009-12-30 11:06

关键要经常发布各种不同的预测，然后选择性遗忘～～～～

nanosensor

Thanks

Cobra

5# ranchgirl

我记得住。
AUSSIE预测家（和星象有关）预测GWB在任上被暗杀，错； 预测TOM CRUISE出车祸死亡，错。
ppteam 发表于 2009-12-30 16:27

azure4068

这个牛，回头再来看看，俄呵呵

tonyshen

flyingdust

其他可听可不听，都有道理，看到最后居然预测乌紫和老婆的感情问题来了，介个。。。