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发表于 2009-12-30 04:11 AM
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请问,能否将03~09的收益曲线变化讲解一下..俺一点都看不懂 谢谢啦...
包括Inverted Yield Curve,利率的加减对这个短期和长期的BOND YIELD的影响是什么?谢谢
ajs 发表于 2009-12-30 02:14 
The recent sell-off in the 30-year US Treasury bond has created a very steep yield curve that, in normal times, would seemingly help stimulate increased borrowing, lending and economic activity. But, today’s times are anything but normal...
Typically, an inverted yield curve is a harbinger of a recession. When longer term rates are lower than shorter term rates, banks aren’t encouraged to attract depositors or to lend because there isn’t much “spread” between their costs (interest paid on deposits) and their profits (interest received from lending activities). When a yield curve is inverted -- as it was in 1969, 1973, 1979, 1981, 1989, 2000 and 2006-7 -- a significant equity and economic decline results about half of the time.
Conversely, when a yield curve is very steep, as is the case today, banks are encouraged to lend because profit margins are high. Current short-term interest rates on the 13-week T-bill are at 0.17% while the 10-year Treasury note is at 3.86%. This spread suggests that banks should be more inclined to lend today because of the difference between borrowing short and lending long. The trouble is that most banks don’t have the excess capital to lend now because their balance sheets and capital ratios have been impaired dramatically by the housing and credit crises. In addition, since frugality is now in style (notice that former “fashionistas” are becoming ”recessionistas”), banks’ customers are less inclined to borrow. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-12-29 08:43 AM
