EPS beat rate + Guidance --- 都是历史最高水平

Diffusion

EPS BEAT RATE AT 85%

While stocks are trading lower today because of a poor reaction to Bank of America's and General Electric's earnings reports, the third quarter earnings season has gotten off to a stellar start.  Since Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season, 85% of US companies have beaten earnings estimates.  While we still have a long way to go this reporting period, the current beat rate is well above any other quarter since at least 1998.  Even with analysts raising estimates significantly leading up to earnings season, companies have still managed to come in better than expected so far.



GUIDANCE -- WOW

While the EPS beat rate this earnings season has been strong, there's another data point that has been even more eye-popping.  While the earnings per share numbers grab the headlines, it's what companies say about their future quarters that impacts stock prices the most on their report days.  As shown below, 20.3% of US companies have raised guidance so far this earnings season.  The highest reading for this number has barely broken 15% in any prior quarter this decade.  And if we compare the percentage of companies raising guidance versus the percentage of companies lowering guidance, no other quarters come even close to this one.  It will be hard to keep this up as earnings season progresses, but it's also shaping up to be a record-breaking quarter on the positive side.

牛B家

it is another evidence to sell the top

trueself

1# Diffusion

牛二买刀

黔驴技穷了

hifive

Thanks for sharing!

ranchgirl

reason???

Diffusion

it is another evidence to sell the top
牛B家 发表于 2009-10-16 17:31

Good contrarian thinking, but I think this number makes it less possible for us to see significant drop before the end of this ER season.

Diffusion

reason???
ranchgirl 发表于 2009-10-17 01:16

You are asking for the reason of the rising profit? If so, the answer would be cost cutting + abundant liquidity, which may not last forever. But this is already a strong trend and nobody knows when the trend ends. Before it ends, better to follow it.

knight2017

Good contrarian thinking, but I think this number makes it less possible for us to see significant drop before the end of this ER season.
Diffusion 发表于 2009-10-17 17:43

I think Keep earnings beating at this level is not too possible. Unless we can push for 90%, we are likely to see it averaging down meaning more down side surprise at then end of the earning season relative to what has happened so far.

Diffusion

I think Keep earnings beating at this level is not too possible. Unless we can push for 90%, we are likely to see it averaging down meaning more down side surprise at then end of the earning sea ...
knight2017 发表于 2009-10-17 22:35

Even a 65% beat rate, a big drop compared to what we have now, is at the bull market level of 06 and 07.  Less exciting it could be, but not necessarily any down side surprise.