运用100周线来判断重要趋势转变 之一 ：SPY

stringzero

如果我２００７年底就看到了这张图，呜呜　My 401k　



The 100 week moving average in an important long term trend indicator and if used correctly, can both get you in on the long side, and get you out before your profits go up in flames.  No moving average system is perfect, and you need not strictly adhere to any codified set of system rules to make money.  Moving averages are markers, warning signals, bells that should get your mind in gear to switch sides when the trend changes.


The 100 week moving average provided resistance for almost three months back in 2003 after the market rallied off the bottom.  We then saw the line flatten out and give way to the market as it broke through to the upside.  The important part here is that the moving average was not moving in a negative direction when broken.  Always trade in the direction of the trend.  As you are about to see, trading against it can get you whipped out.

After the break to the upside the market tested the 100 day seven times during the rally.  Finally in January of 08′ it broke through as the momentum stalled and the moving average was flat.  This was your sell signal.  Did it get you out at the top of the market or in at the bottom, no.  Did it save you a shit load of money during the disaster that was 2008, hell yes.  Bells should have been going off in your head that a major momentum indicator had been violated and the time was not ripe for being long the market.  The subsequent rally up through this moving average was a fake out, the moving average was headed in the negative direction.

That brings us to today.  We are seeing a strong break of the 100 week moving average as it is now flat.  I believe because of the steepness of ascent that we have witnessed over the past 6 months, it may take us some time to break free here.  Look for some consolidation up here between 1060 and 1100 on the $SPX.  Could this also be a fake breakout, sure.  Be very cautious over the next few weeks for a failed breakout, from failed moves come fast moves.

Put the fundamentals of the market in a closet for now and pay no attention.  We are being driven up by a flood of liquidity as the Fed banks on a fake it till we make it strategy (pun intended).

oldpigwang

1# stringzero
好文章，要好好看看。

cowboy11

thanks

yuxiaohong

Thanks