- iPhone becomes a monstrous success. The more iPhones are sold, the more developers are willing to write apps for it, and the more useful it becomes, thus even more people are willing to buy it. This is a combination of network effect and positive feedback, I don't think Nokia, Motorola, and other knock-offs have any chance to counter that.
- iPhone's deferred revenue and apps stores are powerful revenue generators： revenue per unit is growing faster than the growth in units.
- Mac sales are starting to pick up again.
Negative Trends:
- iPod business is slowly winding down. It won't die tomorrow, but it's no longer a growth factor for sure.
- Mac and iPod margins are being squeezed. Even unit sales increased, revenues went down.
To me, APPL is a growth company. So it matters to see how it generate growth. Now, there is no new killer product. Its growth is mostly coming from replacing old ipods and lowering the price of iphone. It's a two way sword. When iphone becomes a commodity product, I don't see any competitive advantage for the long term (in three to five years). Someone may argue that new technology will come out and replacing the old one. That's kind of true. However, we need to put it into the eco-environment. This current quarter is a real test. Let's see how Back to School Sales going. Just need to remind everyone what happens to GOOG, when its growth becomes slower than expected. jm2c
whatever, qtr earning $1.32 per share and stocks traded at $157.
I would not even buy it at 100.
I'd rather buy GOOG at 400 than Apple 100.
Apple and WS MM play the same game qtr by qtr.
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WS analyst predicts $1.32 per share and 9.2B revenue next qtr, Apple says next qtr our target is $1.12 and revenue between 8.5~8.9.
Then WS analyst modify their expectation to $1.12 and 8.5B reve.
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-7-22 02:08 AM
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变色卡
发表于 2009-7-22 02:51 AM
发表于 2009-7-22 06:50 AM