对SRS感兴趣的同鞋请密切注意它的走势

hithere

SRS已经DOWN 6天了，有些人认为它的下降趋势确立了。而我则认为相反，有几个原因：

1。连跌6天，是SRS历史上没有的，甚至5天都没有。这个股票有个特点，越是Weird的时候，越到了反转的时候（不是反弹）。就如它在道指8800那几天突飞猛进时，它反而跌的不多，甚至还涨一些。持续几天后，开始反转。

2。量一天天变小。历史上看，SRS越到了量小的时候，越到了要创新高的时候。

3。这几天表现同季度末密切相关。这个季度大投资人heavily invested在金融和房地产领域，他们需要在季度末交出漂亮的成绩单，SRS作为房地产的反指，必然受到了压制。季度一但结束，而道指也开始下滑，SRS会补回现在所欠的部分。

很多人认为SRS只适合做DT，而且还有Time Decay效应，其实是有误区的。这种反指在大市下滑时，上涨的速度远高于下滑的速度。而且，在金融，地产目前仍然存在很大潜在风险的时候，这种股票的最终回报“可能”要远远高于普通个股，但是需要玩家足够的耐心。

JL01

stockgirl

dara

SRS已经DOWN 6天了，有些人认为它的下降趋势确立了。而我则认为相反，有几个原因：

1。连跌6天，是SRS历史上没有的，甚至5天都没有。这个股票有个特点，越是Weird的时候，越到了反转的时候（不是反弹）。就如它在 ...
hithere 发表于 2009-6-30 23:25

Do not agree. It does not decay? Did you do your research.

on 1/1/2009, IYR was 36, now is 32. so IYR down 10%+.

Should not SRS up? instead it dropped from 53 to 20 now.

hithere

Do not agree. It does not decay? Did you do your research.

on 1/1/2009, IYR was 36, now is 32. so IYR down 10%+.

Should not SRS up? instead it dropped from 53 to 20 now.
dara 发表于 2009-7-1 00:39

It does decay, but it's when market is on uptrend. When SRS is on downtrend (market on uptrend), it does decay, which means losing is faster than gaining. But when it's the other way around, when SRS is on uptrend (market on downtrend), gaining will be faster than losing.

dara

It does decay, but it's when market is on uptrend. When SRS is on downtrend (market on uptrend), it does decay, which means losing is faster than gaining. But when it's the other way around, when  ...
hithere 发表于 2009-7-1 00:47

LOL,  when Market on downtrend, any 2x short ETF will up fast, that is why they are 2x ETF.

It has nothing to do with SRS

hithere

LOL,  when Market on downtrend, any 2x short ETF will up fast, that is why they are 2x ETF.

It has nothing to do with SRS
dara 发表于 2009-7-1 01:15

That's what I meant, all 2x inversed ETFs have same time decay issue when they are on downtrend. But decay will eventually wear out when reversal happens, and furthermore decay becomes "appreciation" if I am using right word.

I don't want to debate you on this issue. For decay effect, many people have misunderstood it. And I believe right now people should start to walk out of this misconception.

dara

That's what I meant, all 2x inversed ETFs have same time decay issue when they are on downtrend. But decay will eventually wear out when reversal happens, and furthermore decay becomes "appreciati ...
hithere 发表于 2009-7-1 01:30

it is not time decay, it is the volatility.

SRS decays way fast than QID/SRS. It is like (1+x)*(1-x) = 1-x^2, the bigger x is the more decay it gets. Well, Short 2x ETF decays even worse than 1-x^2.

BTW, I can tell you SRS is the fastest decaying 2x short ETF, even worst than SKF.

hithere

it is not time decay, it is the volatility.

SRS decays way fast than QID/SRS. It is like (1+x)*(1-x) = 1-x^2, the bigger x is the more decay it gets. Well, Short 2x ETF decays even worse tha ...
dara 发表于 2009-7-1 01:45

Don't know how u get this equation, and how it works out that way.

Let me put it this way, no matter what decay it will get, if the market downtrend is set up, SRS will be running up fast, especially when Real Estate has a big potential risk in a foreseeable future.

janez

hithere,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I am definitely a fan of SRS.

hithere

SRS really has come to a point that its price is very appealing, both from long term and short term standpoint. Down 7 days straight in a row! even for a russian roulette has a chance to win on next bet :)

stockgirl

Hithere, Thank you for your good analysis on srs.  How do you think about EEV?  Thanks!

hithere

Hithere, Thank you for your good analysis on srs.  How do you think about EEV?  Thanks!
stockgirl 发表于 2009-7-1 13:44

I happened to play EEV for a while a few months back. All inversed ETFs had experienced steep downturn since March, however, my opinion is that when a correction really happens even for a bull market, these inversed ETFs will at least get back some handsome loss. The problem is the entry point your budget allows you to take.

love4pics

hithere

love4pics 发表于 2009-7-1 14:24

Is this love4pics from DQ? finally you found here. Welcome to bear world! :)

love4pics

Is this love4pics from DQ? finally you found here. Welcome to bear world! :)
hithere 发表于 2009-7-1 14:27

peace&love~~~