(ZT) Prediction is for slave, Reaction is for King
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... do=blog&id=8406
People just don't realize it. They try to predict, time the market, and they are doomed to fail, miserably.
The way to play a random market, is to have a consistent, proven strategy. You plan entry and exit of your trade, BEFORE you enter it. That is, know how much you wish to win, how much risk you can take and how much loss you can afford, BEFORE you open a trade. Ask yourself, what you can/should do when you are right/wrong.
Don't believe those trading genius bullshit. Nobody can survive a complete random market without a plan.
The day to day market activities are random, whoever claims to be able to time/predict the market on daily basis, is a liar for sure.
Some systems claim they can time the market perfectly. Yes that's right, because the system gives way too many signals. Whenver market is changing direction, they give you a signal. Just like having a weather forecast that gives you minute forecast every single minute. If you don't like the forecast, just wait a minute.
Stop predicting the market, trade it with a plan, before you start.
Daily activities are random, however, long term trend is predictable, just like you can predict winters are colder than summers.
What I meant was you can't not time the market - buy the bottom and sell the top. In fact, you shouldn't try to do so at all. If you ever did that before, it's not because you were smart, but fluke.
Those keep asking "bottom" or "top", they are still trying to time the market, and will fail sooner or later.
If you know how to play black jack like a profeissional, you know what I mean. The card dealt to you is random, but if you have a good strategy (counting) and stick to it, you have more than 50% chance to beat the house. The better you count, the fewer card left, the better chance you have.
If you keep believing what you've been believing, you will achieve what you've been achieving. |
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发表于 2009-5-6 09:02 AM
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发表于 2009-5-6 08:34 PM
