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股市总是要回到fundamental的。过去一年，growth的股票涨了3倍以上， value的股票涨了2倍以上， 50步笑100步。再怎么轮动， 任何股票板块的P/E都可以是史上前三的记录， 总会跌的。
当年大跌的过程可能是这样的：
大盘失去上涨动力，上下猪很长一段时间， 然后转身向下调整， 接散户上车，杀猪。
然后持续上涨，上涨，散户卖了再买不断追高，熊熊弹尽粮绝，丧失信心，杀熊。
突然暴跌， 大跌，散户卖了再买不断抄底割肉，牛牛弹尽粮绝，丧失信心， 杀牛。
其实每个人都同意， 大跌就在前方，只是每个人的交易周期不一样而已。
Although rapidly rising Treasury yields have recently been the biggest cause for concern on Wall Street, valuations might be an even more worrisome.
According to enterprise data provider Siblis Research, the Nasdaq 100 -- an index of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange -- ended 2020 with a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.5 and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of 55.3. The CAPE ratio takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings for the previous 10 years. For some context here, the Nasdaq 100's trailing P/E ratio on Dec. 31, 2020 was practically double where it ended 2018 (20.3), and the CAPE ratio is well above historic norms.
And it's not just the Nasdaq 100, either. The CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) stood at 35.3, as of Wednesday, March 10. That's more than double its average reading of 16.79 over the past 150 years. There have only been five instances where the S&P 500's CAPE ratio has surpassed and sustained 30. In each of the previous four instances, the benchmark index lost between 20% and 89% of its value.
Don't worry, the 89% loss associated with the Great Depression is highly unlikely to happen again. But a bear market has previously always been in the cards when valuations get pushed to the extent we're seeing now. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2021-3-14 08:12 PM
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发表于 2021-3-14 11:37 PM
