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I don't know about mid-term, maybe we'll see another high, possibly 8500 to 9000 (Dow).
But short term pull back pressure is big. Retail investors are settled - either in, or still holding out, or shorting. The only change could be, shorters cover as forced. But I don't think there is much danger of that happening - now the shorter left are mostly rich/conservative ones.
long term wise, commercial real estate is going bust. (GGP is the first one, but just as Bear Sterns, where there's one, there's second, and 3rd, and forth...) The foreclosure buying will see an end very soon, when people can't any more get loans, credit risk goes through the roof, and small businesses go out of window.
So I think shorters will take the opp to unload some positions in short term, and short again when the market goes crazily high again, in a month to 3. |
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