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I do not see many bullish posts in HT, nobody wants to be too bullish on this market, instead I see lots very bearish posts.
However, I think market could be much higher from here sometime this year. Here are my thinking:
1. I see house marketing could be bottoming. Last weekend I went to lunch(at 富临门) with 8 other guys, 3 of them are looking for houses, and I see nearby colleagues are starting to look for house too. Renting a two-bedroom fee is close to monthly mortgage for a 4 bedroom single house in some areas, that would eventually bring buyers back to market, just as I see now.
2. Many funds missed the March rally. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NY ... y-rb-14939676.html. The March is too fast I guess a lot of them are caused by shorting covering. And many MMs still doubt about this rally. Look some other data, money in Money marketing increased significantly recently, once those money gets back int stock stock, that would be a huge rally, and they will, market market interest is like 1% APR now?
3. I believe O8's $780B and other stimu money all around the world will take affect later this year, at least good for 1 or 2 years.
Well short term we may see a pull back just because of the huge rally. I would be too bearish for the mid term.
my current trading plan:
1. day trading only. only holding options overnight(<10% acct value). Even my 401K acct is all cash in week now and day trading only(cash acct need several settle days, so do not use all money in one day)
2. waiting for the pull back to build up position. ( I average down from 760 to 660 last time, ). I doubt we could even see 760 this time now, if so it is a no brain for me to add position
3. If market continue goes up or stays at this level this week, buy some far out of money MAY PUT option next Monday(MAY PUT will lost lots time value after April OE, so donot buy too much this week), then if the market does pull back, I will buy stocks gradually.
For us 低手,, money management is always the most important , do not follow other HH that much, especially do not short too much, my only wipeout happened in 2000 because I shorted heavily, though the stocks I shorted all dropped at least 85% after 2002, I could not hold on because I shorted too much.
We've seen enough stocks more than doubled, trippled in the last month, I see the market is even crazier than 2000 right now for those finance stocks, which up and down 10% every day, I did not see it in 2002. For posts like " buy 3000 FAZ at 40", "All in FAZ", that would just be stupid and misleading, We 低手 should never follow them. FAZ/UYG/SRS are only for day trading only and never put more than 20%(if you have a small acct) money in it even in clear down day like yesterday. For days like today, buying them is the same as gamble in vegas.
Again, follow your own plan.
PS: that is why I do not like those paid blogs, nothing personal, it just would not work by just following somebody else. If it works, then everyone could end follow the same guy. I do not see how it could work out.
Think about it, last year most fund lost money, are those fund manager not as smart as the bloggers in HT, damn no way. I have 2 classmates working in WS too(the guy sleeping on top of me) works in GS. I know they are as smart as anybody. The point is in bad years even most HH lost money. Nobody can guarantee win at any time at any market.
DAMN SO LONG for 灌水ing
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发表于 2009-4-15 10:58 PM
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