C为什么上涨?

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和上次的原因一样，短线应该考虑出C。

Citigroup Inc.'s plans to issue 4.4 billion new shares won't move forward until at least Friday, potentially prolonging a short squeeze that has been propelling its stock higher this week.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has told Citigroup executives that it won't approve the company's stock-registration statement until after the New York banking company announces first-quarter earnings on Friday, according to people familiar with the matter. Citigroup previously had told traders that the approval would come in early April.

Separately, the New York Stock Exchange is showing signs of retreating from plans to create a market for the new Citigroup shares before they're issued. The so-called "when issued market" is employed by the exchange to trade securities that are not yet in investors' hands.

Citigroup's stock surged 25% on Monday, and is up another 8.4% on Tuesday, recently trading at $4.12. Traders and some Citigroup officials say the run-up is due to a "short squeeze" -- when short-sellers struggle to find the necessary shares for borrowing and reselling in the market.

Hedge funds and other traders had been hoping for some near-term relief from the short-squeeze, because they're facing huge losses on their short positions.

Citigroup last month applied to the SEC to register about 4.4 billion new shares as part of its process to convert much of its outstanding preferred shares into common stock.

That move -- designed to improve one gauge of Citigroup's capital -- is expected to flood the market with Citigroup's shares, and will also make it easier to sell borrowed shares used for short positions. Citigroup currently has more than 5 billion shares outstanding.

Citigroup officials had been telling investors that the SEC was expected to declare the company's stock-registration statement "effective" by last week. But the approval process has been bogged down. Citigroup executives continue to comb through a lengthy list of comments from SEC staff, according to people familiar with the matter. And the SEC recently informed Citigroup that it likely won't bless the registration statement until after Citigroup reports first-quarter results on Friday, these people said.

An SEC spokesman declined to comment.

Speculators had hoped to get relief from a "when issued" market created by the New York Stock Exchange. In a memo last month, the NYSE told traders that such a market would begin "on a date to be announced."

A person close to Citigroup said that the NYSE no longer plans to create a when-issued market for Citigroup's new shares. An NYSE spokesman said the exchange hasn't made a final decision. The NYSE "reserves the right to not initiate when-issued trading, and to monitor what happens over-the-counter first, and then determine whether to begin a when-issued market, based on when and if demand merits it," the NYSE spokesman said in a statement.

A "when issued" market for Citigroup stock would create an opportunity to sell the common stock that investors in preferred shares expected to receive in the exchange offer. That might have narrowed the gap between the price of the preferred shares and the current price of the common shares.

Late Tuesday, one Citi 8.125% Series AA preferred security could be bought for $19.45 but was exchangeable for a fixed 7.3 shares of common stock valued at $29.60.

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如果这是真的，Conversion Ratio直接决定C的市价。

Citigroup May Cut Conversion Ratio, Analyst Says

Citigroup Inc. is more likely to cut the conversion ratio for its preferred shares now that the common stock is trading above $3.25, according to a Bank of America Corp. analyst.

Hedge funds and speculators began buying Citigroup’s preferred stock in February after the company announced plans to exchange up to $52.5 billion of it for common stock to replenish capital. Shares of the New York-based bank have rallied as much as 38 percent above their planned conversion price of $3.25 in the past two days, raising the prospect that holders of the preferred stock will receive fewer shares.

“The risk of the preferred exchange offer being repriced lower (that is, lower conversion ratios than previously indicated) has increased, in our view,” Tatyana Hube wrote in a report today.

Jon Diat, a Citigroup spokesman, declined to comment on the report. The bank hasn’t set a date for the conversion.

Citigroup rose 21 cents, or 5.5 percent, to $4.01 in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange today after climbing as high as $4.48. The stock closed above the planned conversion price of $3.25 yesterday for the first time since the transaction was announced on Feb. 27.

‘Fearful’

Hedge funds and other investors seeking to profit from the arbitrage between the preferred and common shares have fueled a fivefold surge in the number of Citigroup shares sold short to 1.21 billion as of March 31, according to New York Stock Exchange data. Investors covering their short sales have helped fuel gains in Citigroup shares, said Scott Lynch, a managing direct at Credit Suisse Group AG who trades financial shares in New York.

“People are fearful of the deal ratios possibly getting changed, but it’s more along the lines of the stock trading up because of a short squeeze,” Lynch said in an interview. “It’s really more technically based, than based on preferred deal getting changed.”

The shares have more than doubled since Feb. 27, when the U.S. government ratcheted up its effort to save Citigroup by agreeing to convert as much as $25 billion of preferred shares into common stock. Another $27.5 billion in preferred shares held by private investors may also be exchanged.

Citigroup’s preferred shares trade below the value of the common shares for which they can be swapped. For example, the company’s 8.5 percent Series F preferred closed today at $19.30. The stock is convertible into about 7.3 common shares, worth a combined $29.27, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

According to Bank of America, the conversion ratio may be adjusted to bring the value of the common stock received in line with the preferred shares’ face value, which is $25.

“Even if the preferred exchange values are capped at their par values, there is potentially still a lot left to gain,” Hube said.

Citigroup’s plan to issue 4.4 billion new shares may be delayed until at least April 17 because the Securities and Exchange Commission won’t approve their registration until the bank reports first-quarter results, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. That may prolong the short squeeze that has fueled the rally in Citigroup shares, the newspaper said.