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楼主: Cobra

分析蜡烛图,为什么要用SPY or ES而不是SPX?这个问题被问了几万遍了。

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发表于 2016-3-25 10:59 AM | 显示全部楼层


Cobra 发表于 2016-3-24 12:01 PM
蜡烛图来源于日本,连名字都是日本名,比如Doji。

班长知识太渊博啦
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发表于 2016-3-25 04:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2016-3-25 10:26 PM | 显示全部楼层
多谢Cobra老大科普。 终于明白为什么spx 和spy的图看上去有不一样了。
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发表于 2016-3-25 10:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
Cobra 发表于 2016-3-24 12:01 PM
蜡烛图来源于日本,连名字都是日本名,比如Doji。

现在又有了
woji
moji
yoji
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发表于 2016-3-27 02:31 AM | 显示全部楼层
终于明白为什么我的MA200跟别人的MA200数值不同啦
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发表于 2016-3-27 07:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
cbd 发表于 2016-3-25 10:59 AM
班长知识太渊博啦

班长精通日本各种文化
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发表于 2016-3-27 09:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
Cobra 发表于 2016-3-24 02:43 PM
NND,我置顶三年!

置顶三百年!
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发表于 2016-3-28 09:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
多谢蛇大科普,刚明白2者的不同
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发表于 2016-4-3 12:18 AM | 显示全部楼层
如果 “SPX 的开盘价永远是错的,这已经是很多年的 well known problem 了”,why Wall Street doesn't fix the issue?
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发表于 2016-4-3 04:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
let's ask what forces really make SPY and SPX move together as much as they do. It's one thing to say "SPY is tied to SPX," but how? There are several answers to this, but I'll argue that the most important factor is that there's a notion of "authorized participants" who are players in the market who can "create" shares of SPY at will. They do this by accumulating stock in the constituent companies and turning them into the market maker. There's also the corresponding notion of "redemption" by which an authorized participant will turn in a share of SPY to get stock in the constituent companies. (See http://www.spdrsmobile.com/conte ... reated-and-redeemed and http://www.etf.com/etf-education ... tion-mechanism.html)

Meanwhile, SPX is just computed from the prices of the constituent companies, so it's got no market forces directly on it. It just reflects what the prices of the companies in the index are doing. (Of course those companies are subject to market forces.)

Key point: Creation / redemption is the real driver for keeping the price aligned. If it gets too far out of line, then it creates an arbitrage opportunity for an authorized participant. If the price of SPY gets "too high" compared to SPX (and therefore the constituent stocks), an authorized participant can simultaneously sell short SPY shares and buy the constituent companies' stocks. They can then use the redemption process to close their position at no risk. And vice versa if SPY gets "too low."

Now that we understand why they move together, why don't they move together perfectly. To some extent information about fees, slight differences in composition between SPY and SPX over time, etc. do play. The bigger reasons are probably that (a) there are not a lot of authorized participants, (b) there are a relatively large number of companies represented in SPY, so there's some actual cost and risk involved in trying to quickly buy/sell the full set to capture the theoretical arbitrage that I described, and (c) redemption / creation units only come in pretty big blocks, which complicates the issues under point b.

The dividend on SPY is (more or less) passing on the dividends from the constituent companies. But each company pays on its own schedule and SPY does not make a payment every time, so it's holding a corresponding amount of cash between its dividend payments.
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发表于 2016-4-3 04:12 AM | 显示全部楼层


SPY is an index fund that tries to match the performance of SPX. As an index fund it has several differences from the index:

•It is NOT the index in that it cannot acquire 100% of the share capital of all 500 companies that make up the index. The fund "only" has a capitalization of USD 166.61B, is significantly less than the USD 2.2T of the whole index.

•It has turnover. That means it buys and sells shares, based on the movements of the capitalizations of all the constituent companies. SPY itself has a turnover of 3.54% per annum. That means that, at any given time, the makeup of the index will be different from the fund. Trades take time to execute (and decide on what to execute, when).

•Funds have expenses. The fund takes out 0.09% of all holdings every year to cover its management costs (and make a profit).

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 楼主| 发表于 2016-4-3 12:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
AynRand 发表于 2016-4-3 12:18 AM
如果 “SPX 的开盘价永远是错的,这已经是很多年的 well known problem 了”,why Wall Street doesn't fix ...

好像是技术问题,他们做不到。所有NYSE的INDEX的开盘价都是错的,NASDAQ就没有这问题,可能因为NASDAQ比较新,用的是新技术。
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发表于 2016-4-3 12:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 连山 于 2016-4-3 12:21 PM 编辑

SPX的开盘价不是错,是计算的方法不同。
所以炒股不能掐她,只能八卦,这样才能到最高境界。

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发表于 2016-4-3 05:44 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks,MLat42,Cobra版主 and 连山, for your good points。

我曾在大千回过一个帖子,谈到 SPX 是 index 而 SPY 是它的 Tradable ETF,以及为什么 SPX 的开盘价多为连续或差别不大。因为想不起来那个帖子的题目,所以一时没找到它的链接。

SPX 的开盘价与市场上的 “交易行为” 有一定落差,那不是一个错误。相反,由于 SPX 比它的 ETF SPY 更全面地反映代表美国经济情况的 500个公司,所以专业人士更多地用 SPX 分析大势(当然,SPY 与 SPX 基本上是对应的)。另外,SPX 没有 pre-/after market,所以用 SPX 做波浪分析可以滤掉一些短期噪声。这也是为什么人们用 SPX 做波浪分析。当然,人们也用 ES 做波浪分析,那是从 futures 的角度所进行的探讨。

(注:由于 SPX 的开盘价多为连续或差别不大,所以当 SPX 有跳空时其实市场是给了我们额外的信息。)

毫无疑问,SPY 也是一个很好的、人们常用的技术分析标的。它提供了市场参与者情绪这方面更多的信息,所以对许多技术分析(如,蜡烛图形态,等等)是很有价值的。
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发表于 2016-4-3 05:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
AynRand 发表于 2016-4-3 05:44 PM
Thanks,MLat42,Cobra版主 and 连山, for your good points。

我曾在大千回过一个帖子,谈到 SPX 是 i ...

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 楼主| 发表于 2016-4-3 08:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
AynRand 发表于 2016-4-3 05:44 PM
Thanks,MLat42,Cobra版主 and 连山, for your good points。

我曾在大千回过一个帖子,谈到 SPX 是 i ...

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发表于 2016-4-27 08:48 AM | 显示全部楼层
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