ES 牛熊战报 2/11/2016

HappyMoney

熊军呐喊声极强, 很难不被吓到. 牛军在 news/rumor 的帮助下, 收盘前急速收复了不少失地. 眼下战势混乱, 小心为上.

Today ES big gap down almost 30 points. SPX intraday low was 2 points below January low. Then some news/rumor driven big late afternoon reversal, and rallied 29.75 points off the low. At the end of the day, SPX closed -1.23%.

Overall, today's selloff was a controlled selloff. Even at the low SPX -40 points, Dow -400 points, there was no real panic. For today's action, I guess I have to take it as the face value – January low held as support. Can ES retest today's low very soon? Possible. RUT & Nasdaq both below the January low. It is possible SPX will test it again, and possible break it. But I will trade it when it happens, not predict it. At current level, it is 50-50 chance for a short term double bottom formed.

Tomorrow is the Friday before a long weekend. ES might make some kind of directional move. I just don't know to which direction. I see 50-50 chance for either case. Traders might cover their shorts, or they might take risk off ahead of the long weekend. Be careful to put on a fade trade tomorrow, no matter it is up or down.

ES trade for tomorrow:
·         Continue watch crude and USD/JPY, as ES still following these 2.
·         No bias. I am completely open minded.
·         Key bull/bear level to watch is 1834.75. Above it is bullish. Below is bearish.
·         Levels to watch: 1863, 1845~1843, 1834.75, 1819~1817.5, 1805~1802, 1790, 1778.

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