Gold - midterm trade

bokchoy888

jamesmith

long gold? 可以考虑买CEF, 12% discount to NAV now.
http://www.centralfund.com/nav%20form.htm

bokchoy888

jamesmith 发表于 2015-12-8 10:07 AM
long gold? 可以考虑买CEF, 12% discount to NAV now.
http://www.centralfund.com/nav%20form.htm

thanks man!

bokchoy888

jamesmith 发表于 2015-12-8 10:07 AM
long gold? 可以考虑买CEF, 12% discount to NAV now.
http://www.centralfund.com/nav%20form.htm

I have XGD.to right now. My logic is if gold turns around, GDX or XGD.to will move first and in bigger %. ( they have already been moving).
What do you think?

lilitulip

bokchoy888 发表于 2015-12-8 04:56 PM
I have XGD.to right now. My logic is if gold turns around, GDX or XGD.to will move first and in bi ...

what would make gold turn around? gdxj seems still in bottoming phase. for the passing month the movement so strong in only 1-2 days, most of time in range.

hope could improve my skills in jnug.

bokchoy888

lilitulip 发表于 2015-12-8 06:39 PM
what would make gold turn around? gdxj seems still in bottoming phase. for the passing month the m ...

comparing gld vs gdx, gdx held while gld kept going down.
Plus, imo, fed rate hike has been price, dovish comments from fed will led to gold rebound.

my 2 cents.

jamesmith

bokchoy888 发表于 2015-12-8 05:56 PM
I have XGD.to right now. My logic is if gold turns around, GDX or XGD.to will move first and in bi ...

It's probably worth the time to pick several (at least 5 to 6 or more) good miners, I think that will do better than buying GDX (a basket of 36 miners).
GDX holdings: http://www.vaneck.com/templates/ ... wd.aspx?pageid=3274

The gold price drop has been going on for few years now, mining company with good managements have been adjusting by lowering cost and doing better capital allocation. That's why GDX is holding while GLD continues to drop, some miners started to go up recently (for example ABX)
It depends on how you look at it, if gold price stay low for a while, then buying good mining company will perform well. If gold price start to turn and go up by few hundred dollars, then buying bad and ugly mining company will do better! But we obviously never know when the commodity trend will turn, if we know, then others also know, and there will be no opportunity.

CEF is not a miner, it is a closed end fund that hold 62.3 gold bullion and 37.6 silver bullion, it has 11% discount to NAV now, and if prices of gold/silver goes up, the discount to NAV will disappear thus giving us a better return (hopefully).
http://www.centralfund.com/nav%20form.htm


I like the idea of buying assets on fire sale price, eventually i believe these businesses will return to the mean (this happened many times before and will happen again this time!) I am looking at mining and energy all well (not looking hard enough...thanks for your post to push me to look harder!)...haven't place any large bet on commodity related sector yet though...I have been adding position to financial sector to prepare for the rate hike.

bokchoy888

jamesmith 发表于 2015-12-9 10:20 AM
It's probably worth the time to pick several (at least 5 to 6 or more) good miners, I think that ...

Thanks! I am looking for GDX 1st target 16 and xgd.to 1st target 9, then go from there.