SP500指数2015年走势分析 - II

捷思

补充内容 (2015-6-4 10:52 PM):
5f图 macd还在0下，等108点macd在0上才能抄底。

328

2015-06-04

328

2015-06-05

捷思

328 发表于 2015-6-5 05:32 PM
2015-06-05

agree, thanks

328

2015-06-08

328

又看了看SPY，如果上面15分钟图的划分成立的话，觉得走5浪的可能性要大些，这样明天后天走反弹的可能性大，最终走完可能会到SPY206.9x，即前低附近。所以关键还是看spy208.2x-4x是否能支撑住。

328

06-09

wreckbeach

328 发表于 2015-6-9 05:44 PM
06-09

bucks

2015-0609

时线上处于下跌趋势，但接近日线关键支撑。

15m线上具备了趋势反转的初步条件，离一个波段的底部可能不远了，但还有可能再来一次速跌。

猜猜而已 ：-）

捷思

bucks

2015-0610

328

2015-06-11

328

2015-06-12

328

My note: 如果按4.5 year cycle trough, we will have a sizable down trend in 2016 based on Author's view. However, not specify where it will be.

(Monthly chart) From Oct 1998 on, the counts are 1-2-3-4-5 (cyan) and will be complete soon. Subsequent cyan counts will be A-B-C.
On this monthly degree, the trough cycle usually is by 4.5 year. The troughs could be deep or shallow. The trough occurs Not necessarily at A, B or C.

Cyan A,B and C are predicted to occur based on the A-B-C form. B可能会高于5，C不一定就比A低，这里只是个推测。但时间上是按4.5year推断的。

328

(Weekly chart) From March 2009 on, the counts are A-B-C (burgundy) because of overlapping in weekly chart and will be complete soon based on author's opinion as we already got C=1.618A.

On the weekly degree, the trough cycle could be measured by 1.5 year (18 month) according to the charts by author, I guess.

4.5 year cycle trough happened once around Wave B to prove the CYCLE is working. Also using 4.5 year cycle to predict the next trough will be around Mar-Apr 2016. This trough happens to be the Cyan A.

328

(Daily Chart) focus on the last uptrend from 2014-10-15.

1) Use fib 1355.12 for max target.
2) Fib 1286.66 is a possible tartget in the near future (confulence.)
3) Oct 15, 2014 is a 16.8 month cycle trough (I guess, as it is marked there because of being close to 18 month).
4) Start to use 80-day cycle (probable 3 month, I guess). Or found in the chart somewhere. Actual days between blue 2 and 4 are around 100 days instead of 80 days.
5) start to use 40 week cycle to predict next down around Aug 7. Then next 20 Week up. Don't know why to use 40 weeks? 20 weeks = 140 days.
6) use 40 days for high. the relationship between 40 days and 40 week is described by author.

So I guess author got kind of proves in his chart for applications of 80 day cycle and 20 week cycle in wave 2 and wave 4. Then predict June 25 for high (using 40 days) as well as Aug 7 low by 40 weeks and Sept/Oct high by 20 weeks.




补充内容 (2015-6-14 05:12 PM):
40 Week cycle trough due => 2014-10-15 --> 2015-08-07.
目前，在40 week due 以前，只有40-day cycle crest了，没有更大级别的crest了，这是作者的愿意。

328

(240 min chart). 紫色1234走势是重叠的，所以用ending expanding diagonal分析。1234已经结束。不知道1276.15是怎么算出来的？

所有这几个图放在一起，是个缠论区间套的方法，他这里是5个级别（C,5,5,5,5）都要到顶的味道，看起来挺吓人的。但我想跌的话，也是一层一层的来。

先看他给的1218.37吧。

novice_trader

328 发表于 2015-6-14 09:20 AM
(240 min chart). 紫色1234走势是重叠的，所以用ending expanding diagonal分析。1234已经结束。不知道1276 ...

很好,很合我意。哈哈。

328

上面图中用的Hurst Cycle

bucks

2015-0615