Chart shows mkt 'a ticking time bomb'

oldpigwang

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/t ... bomb-213658733.html

Talking Numbers - CNBC | Yahoo Finance

According to the Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar, bullish sentiment is at levels even higher than they were in December 2013, October 2007and August 1987, and we all know how that ended.

Using data from a survey conducted by Investors Intelligence, Boockvar says the number of bulls exceeds the number of bears by a near record margin.

"Bulls are now just .3 [points] from a record high in December ’04 and compares with 61.6 in December ’13, 62.0 in October ’07 and 60.8 in August ’87," Boockvar wrote in a morning note.
(Watch: Stocks slide; worst hit in 3 weeks for Dow, S&P 500)

Fellow technician, Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, agrees with Boockvar's assessment.

"Market sentiment really is in the bailiwick of the technician," said Ross, a "Talking Numbers" contributor. "I love to use sentiment indicators. But, let's remember they're not the greatest market timing tool. It's not the proverbial bell that rings at the top. It's more like a ticking time bomb."

.Ross thinks investors should be on guard whenever bullish sentiment exceeds 55 percent. But, for the short-term, the chart of the S&P 500 doesn't point to a serious decline.

"This is not the most nefarious short-term chart," Ross said. He sees the S&P 500 as trading in a well-defined trend channel for the past 12 months, with a "support zone" in the 1,850 to 1,900 range. "That's going to be a zone of support on any pullback," he said. "You don't want to be overly bearish unless you breach back below that, which I do think, ultimately, will happen."

zjbjf

向上还是向下？

oldpigwang

zjbjf 发表于 2014-6-12 08:41 AM
向上还是向下？

比喻为October 2007and August 1987。

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zjbjf

oldpigwang 发表于 2014-6-12 09:07 AM
比喻为October 2007and August 1987。

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