简单概率

jamesmith

恒一 发表于 2014-4-21 07:25 AM
After 10 days up, there is an indicator which is called over bought. So stock market is actually l ...

Your assumptions conflict each other...if each day is independent they don't effect each other, if what happen in past effect future probability, they aren't independent.

oldwolf

jamesmith 发表于 2014-4-21 09:19 AM
Your assumptions conflict each other...if each day is independent they don't effect each other, if ...

适用不相关数字。
假设十位数，
第一位是1，概率是1/10
第二位还是1 的概率还是1/10，第二位是2，3，。。。都是1/10
。。。
以此类推。
连续10位是1的盖率和其他数字没有任何不同。

恒一

For SPY, it closed green consecutively for the following 6 days: 4/14/14, 4/15/14, 4/16/14, 4/17/14, 4/21/14, and 4/22/14. 4/18/14 was Good Friday on which market was closed.

(1/2)^6 = 1/64 = 1.563%

SPY closed red on 4/23/14. It seems worthy betting PUT on the high point on 4/22/14 (the 6th green day), I actually did and made some profits on 4/23/14.

GnGSystem

股市的概率不是这样计算的。