Press Release 10月FOMC会议纪要

ctcld

Release Date: October 30, 2013

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment over the past year, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

10月FOMC会议纪要：“未来数月”仍可能缩减QE，考虑下调超额准备金利率对冲

10月FOMC会议纪要重点摘要：

FOMC看到了经济存在的“几个重大风险”

未来数月，如经济数据进一步好转，联储可能缩减QE

FOMC认为经济有下行风险，劳动力市场在萎缩

FOMC认为消费者信心指数仍然过低

FOMC认为房地产市场的复苏变缓了

关于缩减QE的时机

与会者们讨论了联储的资产购买计划。他们普遍认为，劳动力市场的数据若如联储预期持续变好，那么在“未来数月”内，联储仍然预期缩减QE。

与会者们也考虑了这样的场景：经济数据未明显进一步好转前，何种情形可能是缩减QE的合适时机。

关于设定简单准则决定QE投放

与会者们讨论了设定简单准则来自动调整QE额度的可能性。引入单一变量，如失业率、就业人数等作为标准，自动调整QE额度。一些与会者对此表示赞同；另一些与会者认为，此政策不太可能可靠地产生预期效果。

于是有与会者提出，可以采取更简单的方法：明确剩余购债总额或开始缩减QE的具体日程。然而，明确剩余购债总额或具体日程等方法与“资产购买进程不是预先设定的，购债速度取决于美联储的经济展望”的本质是违背的。该方法的好处在于，增强了与公众之间的沟通，有助于市场将联储的购债计划与联邦基金利率和联储的整体货币政策区分开来。

关于缩减QE的构成

联储缩减QE，包括缩减国债和MBS两种证券。一些与会者表示，同时约等量削减两类证券的购买速度比较合理，也易于与公众沟通。另一些与会者认为，削减美国国债的购买速度可以快于削减MBS证券的购买速度，目的是继续给房地产部门的复苏提供支持。还有一位与会者认为，首先削减MBS证券的购买速度，有利于缓解信贷配置的扭曲。

关于下调超额存款准备金率（IOER）

与会者讨论了联储可以采取的一系列行动，用来向市场表明短期利率将维持在低位，或强调委员会对联邦基金利率的前瞻指引。譬如，大多与会者认为，降低央行支付给银行的超额存款准备金利率，是未来某一阶段可以考虑采取的行动。尽管此举通常被认为成效较小，但给市场传达了联储维持低利率的意愿。

关于公开市场操作

与会者认为，联储通过公开市场操作影响短期利率预期的做法令人担忧。例如，持久购买短期国债的机制，通过回购协议提供长期资金支持等。最令人担忧的是，联储此类公开市场操作会抑制价格发现机制，屏蔽市场可能提供的有价值的信息。此外，此类公开市场操作很难与公众沟通，与“经济数据到达门槛值后可能提高联邦基金利率”传达的信息相矛盾。众多与会者认为，公开市场操作值得进一步研究，在一些情况下是能起到作用的。

coexist

tcm328pan

Thanks

ctcld

　　探讨削减QE操作性问题

　　会议纪要显示，美联储理事的探讨议题已涉及到削减QE的操作性问题。部分美联储理事倾向于等量缩减购买美国国债和抵押贷款债券(MBS)的规模，但亦有理事则坚持国债购买规模缩减速度快于MBS。目前美联储每月购买的850亿美元债券资产中，美国国债和MBS规模分别为450亿美元和400亿美元。同时，美联储理事还探讨了实施下调超额准备金和设立通胀下限等措施的可行性。

　　美国媒体指出，虽然无法判定哪种声音在美联储内部更占上风，但该机构理事开始探讨上述问题的行为本身，也许暗示了缩减QE已被提上日程。

　　根据会议纪要，美联储理事还就提升基准利率的“门槛”问题进行了探讨。由于对美国最近几年失业率下降持怀疑态度，认为过去几年失业率的下降可能夸大了就业市场的好转，部分美联储理事希望降低6.5%就业率的“门槛”，尽管他们同样担忧改变“门槛”会损害美联储的政策信用。

　　对此，美联社的解读是，如果未来数据基本符合此前就业市场所展示的前景改善状况，美联储几个月内将开始缩减QE。而这与会议纪要第一句“预计更好的经济数据会允许在未来几个月内缩减购债规模”之间颇为类似。

　　此外，对于美国联邦政府“停摆”对美国市场的影响，会议纪要显示，联邦政府“停摆”的影响是“短期而有限的”，但如果财政问题重复出现，将有损经济发展速度并且打压消费者信心。

　　由于美联储会议纪要总体呈现“鹰派”立场，预期美联储将于今年12月“提前”削减QE的声音开始增大。圣路易斯联储行长詹姆斯·布拉德在美联储会议纪要出炉后表示，如果11月非农就业报告表现强劲，则将提高美联储从12月开始缩减量化宽松规模的可能性。

　　三因素决定年内难实施

　　布拉德的立场得到了高盛(167.07, 2.07, 1.25%)集团报告的间接呼应，该集团报告虽然预计“美联储很可能明年3月开始缩减QE”，但强调“还存在今年12月行动的可能性”，理由是美联储理事“激烈讨论过强化利率政策前瞻指引问题，只是未能达成一致”。

　　美国媒体指出，美联储的确存在今年12月即开始削减QE的可能性，但明年3月仍将是相关程序最可能的启动时点。

　　首先，美国经济持续稳增态势尚存变数。虽然美国10月非农就业报告远超预期，但市场基本认同美经济增速将于第四季度放缓，这让就业市场改善的“含金量”大打折扣——尽管“完全就业”是美联储两大职责之一，但该机构多次强调将更多着眼经济基本面。同时，美国时隐时现的财政问题也令美联储谨慎做出削减QE决策，毕竟美政府下一次可能触及财政“天花板”的时间就在明年2月7日。

　　其次，美联储每年1月、12月的货币政策决议通常具有年度货币政策方向指引作用，该机构很难在这样重要的时点启动削减QE。一方面，尽管美联储内部“鹰派”声音日盛，但本年度拥有货币政策投票权的理事立场整体偏向“鸽派”，这部分理事在年度最后一次投票时放弃立场几无可能；另一方面，美联储此前多次释放削减QE信号却未兑现，因此在看到美国第四季度经济增长数据前，该机构很难冒着政策信用“透支”风险采取行动。

　　再者，也是最重要的，美联储主席伯南克似乎并不希望在自己任期内削减QE，今年9月美联储违背市场预期坚持宽松的决定正是来自其决定性一票。需要指出的是，在耶伦即将于明年2月继任的情况下，伯南克很难做出重大决策来客观上束缚耶伦的政策选择，就像他本人当年继任时，格林斯潘选择默默离去一样。美国东部时间21日早间(北京时间21日晚间至22日凌晨)，美国国会参议院将于就耶伦的继任提名进行投票，预计耶伦会轻松通过投票。

　　美股美元走势还看基本面

　　美联储调高了削减QE的调门，美国金融市场出现波动。在21日的交易中，美国股市三大股指全线下挫，但跌幅均在0.5%之内。其中，道琼斯(16009.99, 109.17, 0.69%)指数下跌0.41%至15900.82点，纳斯达克[微博](3969.15, 47.88, 1.22%)指数下跌0.26%至3921.27点，标普500指数下跌0.36%至1781.37点。美元指数却“备受鼓舞”，当日累计上扬0.2%至81.17，正式站稳81水平线上方。

　　保德信金融公司市场策略师昆西·克罗斯比指出，美股和美元虽然展示了其变化方向，但幅度均十分有限，这表明市场总体处于观望状态，尚没有进入新的态势通道中。这也令其短期走势更显扑朔迷离，蕴藏了更多变数。

　　美联储削减QE的举动本身意味着市场流动性将减少，美股料承受压力。但美股21日总体有限的跌幅表明，市场并不会单纯盯住美联储的货币政策方向，同时还透过美联储的决策间接评估美国经济基本面状况。

　　美元则会因为美联储削减QE的预期而得到提振，一旦美国经济能够呈现稳定增长态势，则全球流动性又会回流美国市场，从而进一步提振美元涨势。

　　鉴于此，美股和美元的中长期走势最终取决于美国经济基本面。而在其最终明确走势前，将经历一个较为“纠结”的踌躇期。在此过程中，美股和美元的短期轨迹更可能与其21日走势相吻合，即温和走高。如果没有美国联邦政府债务危机等“意外因素”干扰，美股和美元温和走高的总体态势料将至少持续到第四季度美国经济增速数据与市场见面的时间，即明年1月底。