S&P Loss After Stretched State

wnd4

The stretched condition of the S&P 500 is consistent with prior market peaks. The benchmark is trading over 3% above its 20-day moving average and over 4% above its 50-day moving average. Similar instances have led into a pronounced market pullback within a 60-day period to follow approximately 80% of the time, based on the past 20 occurrences. Average loss to follow reaches 7.91%, easing the stretched condition and once again providing buying opportunities. The benchmark trading this high above both the 20 and 50-day moving averages is a fairly rare event, occurring maybe once or twice, on average, per year. Excluding the rebound from the 2003 and 2009 lows, which saw the stretched condition persist over many weeks, the elevated state of the benchmark above both of these moving averages has typically only lasted for a short period of time (days) before stock market weakness became realized. Given that the market is not rebounding from significant lows, the sustainability of the stretched state of the benchmark is certainly questionable.

ysc

where did you get this? Thanks,

wnd4

ysc 发表于 2013-10-24 10:59 AM
where did you get this? Thanks,

http://www.equityclock.com/2013/ ... or-october-23-2013/