本周美国经济的历史将被改写，预计GDP将增加3%

ctcld

按：姓熊的，你还不快跑？

(ZT)

本周三，美国GDP的计算方法将发生调整，这是近年来最为深远影响的一次GDP计算方法的改变，将为美国这个全球最大经济体增加相当于一个比利时大小国家的产总量。

美国经济分析办公室本周三将宣布新的计算方法，其中最为重要的一项改变是把研究、开发和版权方面的支出作为投资，并将首次反映养老金赤字对GDP的影响。综合来看，预计新方法将使美国的国民生产总值（GDP）增加3%。这些被称作经济数据奥运会的GDP计算方法调整平均每五年发生一次，旨在更准确地反映现代经济，这也使美国成为第一个采用最新国际标准的国家。

今年4月，美国经济分析办公室负责国家账户统计的Brent Moulton表示：“我们正将这些重大变化追溯到1929年，因此这实际上就是重写历史。”

此次计算方法的调整会让经济学家忙上好几个月。例如，有关于美国政府规模和增长的政治敏感数据将发生改变，因新方法不受过去税务收入的影响。共和党曾抱怨美国联邦政府的增长已经失控，而新方法可能将联邦支出占GDP比例调低0.5%，将联邦债务占GDP中的比例从2012年的73%调低约2%。

本周三还将宣布另外两个层级的GDP数据，但其重要性可能并不高。

第一层级是二季度GDP增长的首次预测。市场对此数据预计较为悲观，普遍为年率1.1%。巴克莱资本的Dean Maki甚至预计GDP增长仅为0.5%。

第二层级是过去三年（2010至2012）每年GDP数据的修正值，如果这些基数大幅调整，这会极大地影响短期数据预测的准确性。第二层级的GDP数据将反映更新的源数据，例如更详细的退税信息。

ctcld

GDP Impact on Bonds

When the GDP report is released, its value is immediately compared to analysists' expectations.  The bond market is likely to react positively if the GDP value is at or below the expected value.  This is especially true if real final sales are poor and inventories are increasing because of slowing demands.  Flat or declining economic growth is unlikely to motivate the FED to increase interest rates -- this can increase demand for bonds, and push prices higher.

Conversely, the value of existing bonds could drop dramatically if GDP exceeds expectations.  A strong GDP report coupled with rising inflation will increase speculation and fears that the Federal Reserve will increase short-term interest rates.  Concern that the Fed will increase interest rates can cause bond prices to plummet.

GDP Impact on Stocks

The equity market’s reaction to GDP reports is generally more tepid than the bond market’s reaction.  Stock market investors and traders use GDP reports to help evaluate corporate profit levels in the past quarter and in the future.  Strong economic growth generates more business profits, and can lead to higher stock prices.  Weak economic growth adversely affects corporate profits, and can apply downward pressure to stock prices.

GDP Impact on the U.S. Dollar

A strong economy supports interest rates and corporate profits.  This combination attracts foreign investors to both the US stock market and to the Treasury bond market.  This attraction increases the demand for US dollars, and can help increase the value of the US dollar relative to other foreign currencies.  However if the rate of inflation in the US accelerates and stays high, US competitiveness will suffer and adversely affect the trade deficit.  This would make the US currency less appealing to foreign investors, and could contribute to a falling dollar.

Sparrow

Thank you!

moro

xiexie

oldfox

Bencat

acoust

novice_trader

谢谢!

stockoperator

dsp

QE will be stopped quickly.

美眉妹

大跌将至， QE这根输液管要拔了。

ysc

利多出尽????  

坐不改名 行不改姓  

fortune1212

zmkh

maopao

jamesmith

If US real GDP(adjusted for price changes: inflation, deflation) can grow 2% a year, then all the problems we worry about are trivial...

catbear

bond 如果跌了， TLT会怎么动？