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发表于 2013-7-9 03:28 PM
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本帖最后由 bullpop 于 2013-7-9 03:31 PM 编辑
从一位大牛那里转过来的。
Discussion: 从金子的开采成本来估计金价。
Reference:
http://www.alamosgold.com/sites/default/files/documents/2013060
page 16 give a good summary
Q: so the conclusion is ~$812, right?
A: that slide shows most majors have their all in cost around $1100
so it is perhaps the fact
but as someone mentioned earlier, if they close some higher cost mines
they can bring down the overall cost. We should see some of those mines
out of business. This is how bear market works, chasing the incompetent
players out of this business.
it's not rare for commodity price falling below the production cost.
the producers need to keep their facilities running, otherwise they
get rusted quickly. In some states, they may lose their permit if they
stop operating for a while. So producers will keep their operations
as long as they can afford to. However, their continious production would
keep adding on the supply side, further crashing the commodity price, until
some of the producers are forced to close after running out of their cash.
when the demands pick up, it would take years for them to come back as
both permit application and raising new capitals takes time. |
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发表于 2013-7-9 03:24 PM
