【转摘】熊熊的（白日）梦

lite1067

我非常怀疑这位老兄能够继续keep his job



Grizzly bear Edwards sees gold at $10,000, S&P 500 at 450
April 25, 2013, 9:14 AM

Albert Edwards, strategist at Societe Generale, is out Thursday with a note reiterating his cheerful forecasts of the  S&P 500 SPX +0.54%   going to 450, 10-year yields  10_YEAR +0.59%   falling below 1% and gold  GCM3 +2.94% rising to $10,000 an ounce.

Why the prediction of a 70% decline in the S&P 500 and a nearly six-fold increase in gold?

“Policymakers’ efforts to manage the economic cycle have actually made things far more volatile.” Edwards wrote, adding “We may have seen the peak of nominal US GDP growth for this cycle. An unfolding recession should see 10y bond yields dragged ever lower and the Fed moving to QE infinity (squared).”

In addition, “holding gold is a bet against central banks competency and given their track record that’s certainly a bet I’d be happy to still take.”

Edwards noted that “US bond yields are still in a pronounced technical downtrend,” and while he expects 10-year rates to fall below 1%, a rebound to 3% still wouldn’t break the downtrend.

Diffusion

他自己都说了：

With some rare exceptions…analysts don’’t like to stand out from the crowd. It is dangerous and career-challenging.