神秘券商的预言(from Barron's)

Diffusion

这个mystery broker的记录一直很好。5月份他预言今天夏天会出新高。现在有新的预言了，大家看看无妨。

Separately, the astute investment advisor featured in this column as the "mystery broker" proved correct in calling for an S&P 500 high this summer, a prediction aired here in May with the index around 1300 and again in early August. He's looking for continued moderate upside, but says the S&P could be capped near 1500, putting it at the forward price/earnings multiple of 14 that accompanied its 2010 and 2011 peaks. His working assumption: a 2012 high not too far above today's level before Election Day, punctuated by a 5% to 10% correction.

http://www.hutong9.net/home.php? ... ward=1&id=40685

Cobra

Yet activity in the options market shows some very bold bets that volatility could sky rocket in the months ahead. Call option buying on the VIX - bets the index will rise - is close to a record high at 5.182 million contracts, according to Schaeffer's data. The record is 5.249 million set in August.

The most actively traded VIX calls on the Chicago Board Options Exchange were October calls with a strike price of 60. Those also had the highest open interest. The VIX would need to rocket more than 300 percent by mid-October, hitting its highest level in about four years, for that trade to break even.

On the face of it a bet like that may seem little better than betting your 401(k) on a single number on the roulette table, but it does reveal more bearishness creeping into the market as stock indexes march to new highs.

Open interest, or outstanding contracts, on the October VIX calls with a strike price of 60 was 37,000 while traded volume was around 40,000. Many of those were bought in blocks of 2000 to 5000 for 5 cents each, suggesting a single buyer, according to Todd Salamone, vice president of research at Schaeffer's.

"Somebody's really playing a disaster by October," said Salamone. "If they're looking for something that big, that is not a portfolio hedge because that would be a lot of downside in the market before that hedge would actually kick in."

Diffusion

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-15 03:15 PM

着两天应该是小散在往里冲，现在就看小散有多疯狂了。

Cobra

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-15 05:49 PM
着两天应该是小散在往里冲，现在就看小散有多疯狂了。

你又熊了？

Diffusion

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-15 05:55 PM
你又熊了？

木有。小散疯完了要回调。回调的幅度决定牛熊。

Cobra

Diffusion 发表于 2012-9-15 06:27 PM
木有。小散疯完了要回调。回调的幅度决定牛熊。

收到！

flyingatom

me "xiao san" in.

busted

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-15 03:15 PM

Cobra,  you mentioned in the weekend update that smart money are on short, meaning they are long with short hedge?

Cobra

busted 发表于 2012-9-16 12:41 AM
Cobra,  you mentioned in the weekend update that smart money are on short, meaning they are long w ...

Yes.

busted

Cobra 发表于 2012-9-16 09:49 AM
Yes.

Thanks.