It's Coming: One Pro Sees Big Stock Selloff in 10 Days

bigbadwolf

Posted By: John Melloy | Executive Producer, Fast Money & Halftime
CNBC.com
| 04 Sep 2012 | 12:57 PM ET

An equity strategist for Goldman Sachs is predicting a September selloff that happens so rapidly he is telling clients to protect themselves before Sept. 14.

The reason: Market disappointment over key meetings of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve—all within the next 10 days.

An ECB Governing Council meeting takes place this Thursday amid growing expectations that ECB President Mario Draghi will lay out some dramatic measures, such as bond purchases or yield caps.

The Fed, meanwhile, meets on Sept. 12 and 13 amid hopes that the central bank will decide on a third round of quantitative easing.

“Our conversations with clients suggest investors anticipate decisive ECB action...and announcement by the (Fed's) FOMC of another round of asset purchases (QE3),” wrote Goldman’s Stuart Kaiser in a note.

But Kaiser doesn't think the Fed will embark on a third round of easing so soon, nor will the rest of Europe—namely Germany—support bold steps by the ECB to resolve its debt crisis.

Bottom line: investors will be disappointed and dump stocks.

In an unusual step for an equity strategist, Kaiser recommends clients purchase S&P 500 puts expiring on Sept. 14 with a strike price of 1375. The holder of this put—a contract to sell an asset at a set price in the future—would gain if the S&P 500 falls below that price before then.

Goldman cited the 10 percent rally in stocks since June, rising sovereign bond yields, and a rising CBOE Volatility Index as reasons to be cautious as September begins.

The firm is hardly alone on Wall Street in its bearishness.

Strategists collectively recommend investors put just 44 percent of their assets in equities, according to a recent survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

That is the lowest asset allocation level for stocks since at least 1985 and down from a long-term consensus weighting of 65 percent.

bigbadwolf

《投資理財》美股9月魔咒 別急著進場
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September 03, 2012 06:00 AM | 1205 次 | 0 0 評論 | 6 6 推薦 | 電郵給朋友 | 打印
根據美商銀美林銀行，從1926年起，無論哪個月份，美股大企業股價平均上漲0.9%；只有在9月，股價平均下跌0.8%。這種特殊的歷史因素或許不足以動搖投資人抱持的策略，但分析師建議，最近應避開最近價格回檔、且共同基金持股比率高的股票。

美商銀美林股票策略師狄桑克帝斯說：「不論出於什麼理由，依據過往累積的經驗，美股9月的表現就是很糟。」這個現象數十年來讓研究者倍感困惑。2008年李曼兄弟倒閉、2001年恐怖攻擊等突發事件，或許拉低了美股9月的平均表現，但仍無法提供完整的解釋。

華爾街日報報導，從1926年來，9月份股價走揚的比率只占一半，比任何月份都要差。據堪薩斯大學的研究，假設有人從1802年開始，每年9月投資股市，到2006年為止他的本金將虧損逾半；但若挑選其餘任何一個月份進行投資，這段期間的報酬率至少有79%。

該研究指出，紐約每到9月日照時間就大幅縮短，可能引起季節性情緒失調，導致交易員更傾向規避風險。但這個解釋連研究人員都不怎麼肯定。

S&P Capital IQ首席股票策略師史托瓦則認為，第三季與當年接下來差勁的獲利展望，是投資人9月大賣股票的原因。

威廉瑪麗學院的吉勃遜教授提出另一個可能原因：尋求減稅。1986年通過的法規，要求共同基金把稅務年度截止時間提前到10月，許多在9到10月出現虧損的經理人可能因此賣出股票，以利用減稅的優惠措施。1990年該法規生效，共同基金廣泛持有且走跌的股票，在10月被大舉拋售，拖累大盤11月挫跌近7%。

雖然法規實施後效應逐漸縮小，但吉勃遜提醒想撿便宜的投資人不要急於進場，因為9到10月股價還可能繼續走低，特別是近來股價已下跌、且逾5%股份為基金持有的企業股票。

例如電腦大廠戴爾，過去3個月股價跌10.8%，且約32%股份在共同基金手中。情況類似的還有達美航空、福特汽車、惠普、Netflix、RIM。

史托瓦說，就算沒有合理的解釋，9月在股市也不宜有大動作。勞工部7日將公布最新就業數據、德國憲法法庭定12日判定永久紓困基金是否違憲、聯準會是否啟動第三輪量化寬鬆，這些事件都可能打斷史坦普500指數近來的漲勢。

Read more: 世界新聞網-北美華文新聞、華商資訊 - 《投資理財》美股9月魔咒 別急著進場