Forex/Futures Outlook 07/30 - 07/31

greenback

Okay, nothing much has changed since last Fri. However, I think bulls are still safe after looking over all the charts gain ...
I'm posting the index futures first. Will come back to other assets later.

Apparently both ES and NQ are consolidating above the breakout level, so far not bad.

AHGfollower

回复 greenback 的帖子

hi Greenback,   Look at how similar patterns we get recently on the tops.    Can we say the MM will go down from here with higher probability?  3:1 ratio for down and up?

源济

greenback

One of my bullish readings are from the bond charts, where the pullbacks are too great and too fast. I can't image this would be just one-legged. Overall, I expect another selloff after today's relief rally in bonds, which would be good news for the stocks.

greenback

The next bullish reading is from CRUDE and GOLD. Both are consolidating and look quite bullish, i.e. the bias is definitely not down for either.

greenback

AHGfollower 发表于 2012-7-30 07:19 PM
回复 greenback 的帖子

hi Greenback,   Look at how similar patterns we get recently on the tops.     ...

There is a possibility of forming a top. For example, when ECB and FEB disappoint.

However, the chart shows a consolidation pattern after a huge upswing last week so the bias is upward, i.e. more traders are still betting that either ECB or FED will deliver something big as they had promised. Anyway, the market is in wait and see mode. It's really hard to say for sure which way the action will be in the end.

In general, you'd know that STers and DTers shouldn't bet for the actions of central bankers if you have stayed at HT9 for a while. So I won't bet with my futures trading on their actions before the announcements. It is simply too hard to control risk and reward due to the potential large swing. However, I will keep unleveraged long stock funds to ride the potential upswing to this year's new high.

greenback

You can also see bullish actions in forex.

First AUD, it touched the uptrend line again ... can't complain ...


GBP is next bullish on the list. Quite good, consolidating above breakout.


EURO pulled back, but it's not deep. found support at ema20. Expect anotyher test of 1.24.


JPY is the only only not cooperating. So if you want to hedge your risky assets, you can long JPY.

greenback

So in summary, bulls can still have one more night of good sleep ...

silicon_beaver

--- I'm posting the index futures first.

Thanks you very much. That's what I like.

knock

risk is near, obviously.

greenback

knock 发表于 2012-7-30 07:41 PM
risk is near, obviously.

That's for sure, I will be out of my leveraged stock fund tomorrow as planned.

greenback

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-7-30 07:40 PM
--- I'm posting the index futures first.

Thanks you very much. That's what I like.

While, actually I know most people want to read the comments on the index futures. However, I found it quite hard to assess the trend just by looking the stocks. So I always look at other assets first to confirm the pattern in the index futures to make sure the conclusion is more likely to be right.

befriend