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发表于 2012-7-24 11:19 PM
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本帖最后由 lite1067 于 2012-7-25 12:26 AM 编辑
Cobra 发表于 2012-7-24 10:53 PM 
不明白，这应该是利好啊。债市没有收益，钱只能往股市跑啊。
不明白这为什么是逼Fed出手。除非到8月1号 ...
Agree. The money will come out of debt market and hopeful into equity market, sooner or later. But how soon? Yield can go from low to lower. You believe in the trend, do you? Is the long term yield in down or up trend? It is hard to bet on a turnaround. Japan 10Y yield has been a little more than 1.0% for two decades. US 10Y treasury yield has reached my target for 2012. But I didn't see European crisis can resurface so soon. I was expecting to see SPX set new high in August before taking the dive. Maybe we still have the chance to see new high in 2012, if Fed can give QE3.
Regarding to why Fed needs to do something in July/31 and Aug/01 meeting. This is a question of chicken and egg: does the market lead Fed or Fed leads the market? I would rather to look at their relationship as a correlated or cooperative one than a simple causation-effect one. Sometimes, Fed leads the market. Sometimes Fed simply yields to the market expectation, being afraid the market will plunge if its expectation not met. After all, chairman Ben truly believes that animal spirits can be triggered from a high-soaring equity market.
Since June/22 Fed announcement, the shrinking spread between treasury and MBS has clearly indicated market is expecting incoming QE3 to purchase MBS. But the rates rally in the past week is demonstrating again the flight to safety. Who is buying, we will see the data soon. So if there are mighty MMs, they should help plunge the market further so to give Mr. Ben a good excuse to take out QE3 from his magic hat under. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-7-25 10:00 AM
发表于 2012-7-25 10:33 AM