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本帖最后由 ctcld 于 2012-7-17 12:13 PM 编辑
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
July 17, 2012
Chairman Johnson, Ranking Member Shelby, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. I will begin with a discussion of current economic conditions and the outlook before turning to monetary policy.
The Economic Outlook
The U.S. economy has continued to recover, but economic activity appears to have decelerated somewhat during the first half of this year. After rising at an annual rate of 2-1/2 percent in the second half of 2011, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 2 percent pace in the first quarter of 2012, and available indicators point to a still-smaller gain in the second quarter.
Conditions in the labor market improved during the latter part of 2011 and early this year, with the unemployment rate falling about a percentage point over that period. However, after running at nearly 200,000 per month during the fourth and first quarters, the average increase in payroll employment shrank to 75,000 per month during the second quarter. Issues related to seasonal adjustment and the unusually warm weather this past winter can account for a part, but only a part, of this loss of momentum in job creation. At the same time, the jobless rate has recently leveled out at just over 8 percent.
Household spending has continued to advance, but recent data indicate a somewhat slower rate of growth in the second quarter. Although declines in energy prices are now providing some support to consumers' purchasing power, households remain concerned about their employment and income prospects and their overall level of confidence remains relatively low.
We have seen modest signs of improvement in housing. In part because of historically low mortgage rates, both new and existing home sales have been gradually trending upward since last summer, and some measures of house prices have turned up in recent months. Construction has increased, especially in the multifamily sector. Still, a number of factors continue to impede progress in the housing market. On the demand side, many would-be buyers are deterred by worries about their own finances or about the economy more generally. Other prospective homebuyers cannot obtain mortgages due to tight lending standards, impaired creditworthiness, or because their current mortgages are underwater--that is, they owe more than their homes are worth. On the supply side, the large number of vacant homes, boosted by the ongoing inflow of foreclosed properties, continues to divert demand from new construction.
After posting strong gains over the second half of 2011 and into the first quarter of 2012, manufacturing production has slowed in recent months. Similarly, the rise in real business spending on equipment and software appears to have decelerated from the double-digit pace seen over the second half of 2011 to a more moderate rate of growth over the first part of this year. Forward-looking indicators of investment demand--such as surveys of business conditions and capital spending plans--suggest further weakness ahead. In part, slowing growth in production and capital investment appears to reflect economic stresses in Europe, which, together with some cooling in the economies of other trading partners, is restraining the demand for U.S. exports.
At the time of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), my colleagues and I projected that, under the assumption of appropriate monetary policy, economic growth will likely continue at a moderate pace over coming quarters and then pick up very gradually. Specifically, our projections for growth in real GDP prepared for the meeting had a central tendency of 1.9 to 2.4 percent for this year and 2.2 to 2.8 percent for 2013.1 These forecasts are lower than those we made in January, reflecting the generally disappointing tone of the recent incoming data.2 In addition, financial strains associated with the crisis in Europe have increased since earlier in the year, which--as I already noted--are weighing on both global and domestic economic activity. The recovery in the United States continues to be held back by a number of other headwinds, including still-tight borrowing conditions for some businesses and households, and--as I will discuss in more detail shortly--the restraining effects of fiscal policy and fiscal uncertainty. Moreover, although the housing market has shown improvement, the contribution of this sector to the recovery is less than has been typical of previous recoveries. These headwinds should fade over time, allowing the economy to grow somewhat more rapidly and the unemployment rate to decline toward a more normal level. However, given that growth is projected to be not much above the rate needed to absorb new entrants to the labor force, the reduction in the unemployment rate seems likely to be frustratingly slow. Indeed, the central tendency of participants' forecasts now has the unemployment rate at 7 percent or higher at the end of 2014.
The Committee made comparatively small changes in June to its projections for inflation. Over the first three months of 2012, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose about 3-1/2 percent at an annual rate, boosted by a large increase in retail energy prices that in turn reflected the higher cost of crude oil. However, the sharp drop in crude oil prices in the past few months has brought inflation down. In all, the PCE price index rose at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent over the first five months of this year, compared with a 2-1/2 percent rise over 2011 as a whole. The central tendency of the Committee's projections is that inflation will be 1.2 to 1.7 percent this year, and at or below the 2 percent level that the Committee judges to be consistent with its statutory mandate in 2013 and 2014.
Risks to the Outlook
Participants at the June FOMC meeting indicated that they see a higher degree of uncertainty about their forecasts than normal and that the risks to economic growth have increased. I would like to highlight two main sources of risk: The first is the euro-area fiscal and banking crisis; the second is the U.S. fiscal situation.
Earlier this year, financial strains in the euro area moderated in response to a number of constructive steps by the European authorities, including the provision of three-year bank financing by the European Central Bank. However, tensions in euro-area financial markets intensified again more recently, reflecting political uncertainties in Greece and news of losses at Spanish banks, which in turn raised questions about Spain's fiscal position and the resilience of the euro-area banking system more broadly. Euro-area authorities have responded by announcing a number of measures, including funding for the recapitalization of Spain's troubled banks, greater flexibility in the use of the European financial backstops (including, potentially, the flexibility to recapitalize banks directly rather than through loans to sovereigns), and movement toward unified supervision of euro-area banks. Even with these announcements, however, Europe's financial markets and economy remain under significant stress, with spillover effects on financial and economic conditions in the rest of the world, including the United States. Moreover, the possibility that the situation in Europe will worsen further remains a significant risk to the outlook.
The Federal Reserve remains in close communication with our European counterparts. Although the politics are complex, we believe that the European authorities have both strong incentives and sufficient resources to resolve the crisis. At the same time, we have been focusing on improving the resilience of our financial system to severe shocks, including those that might emanate from Europe. The capital and liquidity positions of U.S. banking institutions have improved substantially in recent years, and we have been working with U.S. financial firms to ensure they are taking steps to manage the risks associated with their exposures to Europe. That said, European developments that resulted in a significant disruption in global financial markets would inevitably pose significant challenges for our financial system and our economy.
The second important risk to our recovery, as I mentioned, is the domestic fiscal situation. As is well known, U.S. fiscal policies are on an unsustainable path, and the development of a credible medium-term plan for controlling deficits should be a high priority. At the same time, fiscal decisions should take into account the fragility of the recovery. That recovery could be endangered by the confluence of tax increases and spending reductions that will take effect early next year if no legislative action is taken. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that, if the full range of tax increases and spending cuts were allowed to take effect--a scenario widely referred to as the fiscal cliff--a shallow recession would occur early next year and about 1-1/4 million fewer jobs would be created in 2013.3 These estimates do not incorporate the additional negative effects likely to result from public uncertainty about how these matters will be resolved. As you recall, market volatility spiked and confidence fell last summer, in part as a result of the protracted debate about the necessary increase in the debt ceiling. Similar effects could ensue as the debt ceiling and other difficult fiscal issues come into clearer view toward the end of this year.
The most effective way that the Congress could help to support the economy right now would be to work to address the nation's fiscal challenges in a way that takes into account both the need for long-run sustainability and the fragility of the recovery. Doing so earlier rather than later would help reduce uncertainty and boost household and business confidence.
Monetary Policy
In view of the weaker economic outlook, subdued projected path for inflation, and significant downside risks to economic growth, the FOMC decided to ease monetary policy at its June meeting by continuing its maturity extension program (or MEP) through the end of this year. The MEP combines sales of short-term Treasury securities with an equivalent amount of purchases of longer-term Treasury securities. As a result, it decreases the supply of longer-term Treasury securities available to the public, putting upward pressure on the prices of those securities and downward pressure on their yields, without affecting the overall size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. By removing additional longer-term Treasury securities from the market, the Fed's asset purchases also induce private investors to acquire other longer-term assets, such as corporate bonds and mortgage backed-securities, helping to raise their prices and lower their yields and thereby making broader financial conditions more accommodative.
Economic growth is also being supported by the exceptionally low level of the target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent and the Committee's forward guidance regarding the anticipated path of the funds rate. As I reported in my February testimony, the FOMC extended its forward guidance at its January meeting, noting that it expects that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. The Committee has maintained this conditional forward guidance at its subsequent meetings. Reflecting its concerns about the slow pace of progress in reducing unemployment and the downside risks to the economic outlook, the Committee made clear at its June meeting that it is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.
Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.
听证花絮：（倒序汇编， 请倒过来读）
伯南克：财政悬崖很可能会引发美国经济陷入衰退。
伯南克：欧元与德国马克相比，对德国出口更有利。德国有原因去修复危机。
议员问伯南克为什么没有在2008年对Libor发出警报。伯南克回答说，这个问题2008年媒体上已经有广泛的讨论。
伯南克：全世界目前处于宽松周期。
伯南克：欧洲目前处于蒙混过关阶段，这个阶段可能持续很长时间。
美国股市由跌转涨。伯南克从北京时间22点开始讲话，股市随后开始下跌。现在两个小时过去了，股市基本上收回了所有跌幅。
伯南克：欧洲危机有严重的进一步扩大的风险。欧洲离解决方案还有一些距离。欧洲结构变化不会很快完成。
伯南克：美联储寻求让劳工市场可持续改善，如果劳工市场没有改善美联储已准备好行动。
伯南克：恢复金融业信心是优先议题。
伯南克：解决太大不能到的问题将刺激分拆银行。处理太大不能倒的问题非常重要。
伯南克：将尝试让资本金要求总体上与国际标准相符。对进一步讨论大型机构更高资本金水平持开放态度。
伯南克：操纵Libor是不可接受的行为。修复Libor将是一项国际努力。许多人都在考虑用看得到的市场利率取代Libor。
伯南克：美联储确信有工具可以解除目前的政策。美联储的目标是保持价格稳定。
伯南克：非传统工具仍然有一些空间可以支持经济。我们采取的任何措施都可能包含资产负债表行动。
伯南克：现在的通胀风险相对较低。通缩风险适度。
伯南克：如果美联储想要宽松，可以购买美国国债和MBS，使用贴现窗口，使用沟通工具，或削减IOER（超额准备金利息）。
议员问美联储是否还有工具。伯南克，是的。
议员舒默：政治陷入僵局，现在只有美联储有能力行动，目前的环境应该推动美联储严肃考虑进一步措施，采取一切措施确保经济复苏。伯南克：我们在非常严肃考虑。
伯南克：QE和OT不应该随意使用，但仍然有空间。
议员：请给国会发出威胁，以此推动国会做自己的工作。伯南克：威胁国会不是我的工作。
伯南克：财政悬崖将有负面经济影响。
伯南克：美联储将考虑通缩风险的程度。
伯南克：因为Libor没有作出必要的变化，他对Libor并没有充分的信心，不能保证libor是准确的。
伯南克：QE和OT是否有效的基准是劳工市场。
债券之王格罗斯点评伯南克听证会：伯南克作证都是说“你的问题”，包括经济方面，欧元区，以及Libor。从某种程度上说他是对的。其他人有问题。
伯南克：非传统的货币政策仍然有空间。
伯南克：QE和OT是有效的。解决了通缩问题，缓解了金融市场环境。
伯南克：我们正密切关注经济，希望知道放缓是否是“持续的”，还没有作出具体的选项。
议员问伯南克有什么选项。伯南克给出了两个：一个是购买资产，一个是未来利率指引。
伯南克：Libor系统结构上有缺陷，现在需要做的就是修补这些缺陷。
伯南克：FOMC已经做好准备在价格稳定的情况下，采取进一步措施促进更强劲的经济复苏，并改善劳工市场。
伯南克：欧元区金融市场依然有相当压力，并有进一步扩散的风险。
伯南克：美国财政政策在一条不可持续的道路上。
伯南克：国会应该考虑财政方面的挑战和脆弱的经济状况。
伯南克：最近几个月一些房价指标上升；家庭开支仍有增加但增速缓慢。
伯南克：有两个主要风险，第一个是欧元区财政和银行危机，第二个是美国财政状况。
摩根士丹利美国首席经济学家Reihnart：伯南克希望保持低调。他对经济的展望现在更加接近现实。在政策方面依然是重复FOMC会议纪要的内容。
摩根士丹利美国首席经济学家Reihnart：归纳伯南克的证词，就是承诺美联储会做自己的工作。没有大门关闭，但美联储并没有确定目标。
摩根士丹利美国首席经济学家Reihnart：美联储希望“其他人”有所行动，具体来说，就是要应对国会财政和欧洲的风险。
伯南克：预计二季度增长将低于2%。
伯南克：欧洲官员有资源来解决问题。
伯南克：控制美国赤字应该是一个优先要务。
伯南克：重申低利率很可能会保持至2014年底。
伯南克：财政悬崖给美国经济带来了问题。
伯南克：制造业最近几个月放缓了。
伯南克：家庭信心仍然相对较低。
伯南克：美国股市已经转为下跌。
伯南克：近期经济数据令人失望。
伯南克：就业进展令人失望的慢。
伯南克重申如果有必要将采取行动，但未提及任何具体措施。 |
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发表于 2012-7-17 01:12 PM
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