Nokia值多少钱？

Diffusion

最多$1.25。有可能< $1.00。不过你最好别买。

上次跟某人聊天，说NOK到了$1.85我才买。现在看来，当时的估价还是有点高。

NOK现在cash / share is $3.30。不过它已经变成了一个烧钱的公司了，所以这些cash会慢慢烧完，也就是说这些钱不应计入股价。

Windows Phone前景暗淡，所以NOK的所有固定资产都没有value了。不能produce profit的asset都是不值钱的。

唯一能拿出来说的是patents。我的估计patents的价值在每股$1.80左右。但是你别指望这个价钱。因为公司可能会烧钱烧到负资产，需要打点富余。另外如果fire sale，这些patents也不可能买个好价钱，还要打点富余。所以$1.00 - $1.25可能算是个合理的价格。

悲剧的是，公司可能破产，wipe out all equity holder，然后由破产法庭拍卖这些patent。因为equity holder是等级最低的债权人，所以一般一分钱都拿不到。

唯一的机会，有大鳄买入股票，提名独立董事，然后迫使董事会卖公司。这个消息咱们是不会知道的。

结论，无论多么诱人，你最好别碰。

源济

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jamesmith

In a share holder perspective, it is better to liquidate the company and get cash. However, liquidation is uncommon because management will always come up with reorganization plans until there's nothing left.
I think Ben Graham might consider buying if there's enough margin of safety, and he will buy many(hundreds) stocks this way in case some of them do go down.
but Buffet being mix of Graham + Fisher focuses more on business perspective and consistent growth opportunity, he will never buy it.

Diffusion

jamesmith 发表于 2012-7-9 10:05 AM
In a share holder perspective, it is better to liquidate the company and get cash. However, liquidat ...

Well said.

At time of Graham, stock investment is wild wild west. Investors play the game by gut and luck, not by logic. Graham introduced logic to the game and profited a lot.

By the time of Buffett, everyone knows about Graham, so value + margin of safety will not necessary give you an edge. Buffet has to have his own way.

At our time, everyone knows about Buffett. And the market is at mercy of marco turmoils. We better have our own ways.

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