|
楼主 |
发表于 2012-4-29 01:41 AM
|
显示全部楼层
oldpigwang 发表于 2012-4-28 21:24 
回复 ctcld 的帖子
学游斑竹: 请讲一讲“今年的低谷要么在7月,要末就在大选之后”的 "PA的需要和TA的借口 ...
(ZT)
Trading The Presidential Election Cycle
Weak Stock Market Following Election
The post-election year (which will be 2013) has historically been a weak one for stocks. This is the year that the new president tries to implement his election year promises. These changes may result in uncertainty and the market hates uncertainty.
The next year of the presidential election cycle, known as the midterm election year, is generally better than the post election year, but not by much. Bear markets have historically started in the first half of the term.
The pre-presidential election year has historically proven to be the best for the stock market. It has been the strongest year of the four-year presidential election cycle.
Stronger Market Performance under Democratic Leader
What happens after the election? Does it matter to the stock market if a Republican or Democrat takes control of the White House? Conventional wisdom would state that a Republican presidency would be better for the stock market due to the Republican’s pro-business stance. However, the facts prove this wrong. Studies have shown that the stock market has better performance under Democratic presidents than Republicans. This is particularly true with small cap stocks. However, it’s critical to note for traders, volatility has historically been higher during Republican administrations than Democratic ones.
If these cycles continue into 2012, we can look forward to a bullish yet volatile election trading year!
至于为啥7月会有个低谷?
Q2 一般是最差的季节。加上OT结束,新政策需要时间来消化。 |
|